After several recent days of intense storm forecasts across the Midwest, meteorologists have warned that Monday’s weather has the potential to be the most severe yet.
Tens of millions of people from Texas to the Great Lakes live in areas where severe weather — hail, heavy rain, destructive winds or tornadoes — could develop during the day, but forecasters warned that the greatest potential threat was centered over Kansas and Nebraska.
Here are the key things to know:
-
Early on Monday, the remnants of storms that began on Sunday could still deliver severe weather to the Midwest.
-
More significant storms are expected to develop by late Monday afternoon and last late into the night. They are forecast to rapidly intensify into supercells that are capable of producing tornadoes — potentially strong ones — and hail up to 4 inches in diameter or larger, especially in Kansas.
-
Farther northeast into Kentucky, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan, severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon and evening. They are most likely to bring hail and damaging wind gusts of 75 miles an hour.
-
Some severe storms are also possible across portions of Oklahoma and Texas, where there remains a threat for very large hail and isolated tornadoes, although the forecast there was less certain.
-
The same system is creating elevated fire conditions in parts of the Southwest and Plains, where strong winds and low humidity could help fires spark, and spread them more quickly if they do.
This is the time of year for storms like this, but they can be tricky to predict
Thunderstorms can occur nationwide, and at any time, “day or night, throughout the entire year,” the National Weather Service said, but they are most common in the late afternoon and evening during warmer months.
Unlike larger weather systems, such as hurricanes or winter storms, which can be tracked over hundreds of miles and several days, thunderstorms tend to be hyperlocal and short-lived. Bill Bunting, deputy director at the federal Storm Prediction Center, said their unpredictability stemmed from their complexity and size.
Scientists have been able to draw links between a warming planet and many types of extreme weather, including hurricanes, heat waves and droughts. But they are not yet able to determine whether there is a link between climate change and the frequency or strength of tornadoes. Read more about tornadoes and climate change here.
Researchers say that in recent years tornadoes seem to be occurring in greater “clusters” and that the area of the United States known as Tornado Alley, a region where most tornadoes occur, seems to be shifting east.
How to prepare:
Erin McCann is the deputy editor for The Times’s Weather team. She is based in San Francisco.
The post Intense Storms Could Rattle the U.S. Midwest, Monday’s Forecast Shows appeared first on New York Times.
