Ask yourself a question: Why are Democrats so opposed to deporting the millions of illegal migrants who flooded into the country during the Biden administration? They know that illegal immigration propelled Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016. They saw how, after winning back the White House in 2020, Joe Biden’s catastrophic open border policies paved the way for Trump’s return in 2024. And they surely must see the polls showing that Americans overwhelmingly support securing the border and deporting illegal migrants — particularly those with criminal records — even if they disapprove of the way Trump has carried out those policies.
Having lost two elections to Trump on illegal immigration, one would think that even the slowest learners would see that a more moderate course is the smart move politically. But instead, Democrats have doubled down. Why?
One possible answer: redistricting.
Right now, Democrats are losing the redistricting battle. Republicans are set to net as many as 14 GOP-leaning congressional seats across multiple states this year. With the Virginia Supreme Court decision invalidating Democrats’ effort to redraw the state’s congressional map in their favor, the party’s only major victory was the addition of five seats in California, giving the GOP a larger gain so far. And after the U.S. Supreme Court decision declaring racially segregated districts unconstitutional, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and South Carolina all moved ahead with redistricting efforts that will add even more seats for the GOP.
And after the midterms, things are about to get worse for Democrats. Thanks to a substantial population shift from sclerotic, high-tax blue states to more dynamic red ones, the party will suffer a huge loss of both congressional seats and electoral college votes after the 2030 Census. Several projections show that, based on Census Bureau population estimates, Texas will probably gain four seats; Florida could also gain four; and Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Georgia and North Carolina could each add one. Meanwhile, California is on pace to lose four seats; New York and Illinois could each lose two; and Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania could each lose one.
The impact on the electoral college will be profound: Because each state casts electoral votes based on the size of its congressional delegation, blue states are projected to lose 10 electoral votes. That means Republicans would no longer have to overcome the Democrats’ vaunted “blue wall” in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (as Trump narrowly did in 2024) to win the presidency. Republicans would only need to win all the solidly red states plus Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina to take the White House.
In other words, catastrophic blue-state governance is driving Americans to red states, and thus ushering in electoral Armageddon for Democrats.
The countervailing factor for many of these states is a massive influx of illegal migrants who came into the country during the Biden administration. Illegal migrants can’t legally vote in federal elections, but they do count in the census, which means their presence affects the reapportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes.
Blue states and cities are often magnets for illegal migrants because of their sanctuary policies. In addition, during the border crisis, red-state governors such as Greg Abbott (R-Texas) and Ron DeSantis (R-Florida) sent illegal migrants by bus and plane to blue states such as New York, Illinois and California to force them to share the burden of Biden’s policies. As a result, their migrant populations skyrocketed during Biden’s border crisis.
New York City saw an influx of at least 220,000 illegal migrants between 2022 and 2024, and has an estimated 868,000 illegal migrants living in the state, according to the Center for Immigration Studies. California has some 3 million illegal migrants, more than any other state. As of 2023, Illinois had an estimated 530,000, Minnesota had 130,000 and Oregon had 143,000.
Democrats need these unlawful foreign residents to offset the departure of Americans fleeing to less oppressive red-state governance. But Trump’s border policies have halted the flood of illegal migrants that Biden unleashed, while his deportation policies seek to remove them.
Democrats may hope that blue-state resistance to deportations — combined with the enthusiastic cooperation of red states — will tilt the electoral math in their favor. For example, Texas and Florida have the second- and third-largest populations of illegal migrants but also lead the nation in Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests. Meanwhile, New York, Illinois, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania are among the lowest. If red states help Trump deport illegal migrants, while blue states provide them sanctuary, that could help mitigate the impact of legal residents fleeing their jurisdictions.
Because the fact is, conventional politics alone doesn’t explain why Democrats are running headlong into public opinion by fighting Trump’s efforts to deploy ICE agents to their states and seeking to defund ICE on Capitol Hill. But add in the inescapable census math, and a method starts to emerge from the madness. For the Democratic Party, open borders are existential.
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