Even at a time of inflation, tariff concerns and economic uncertainty, Americans opened their wallets on Black Friday, chasing deep discounts and stretching their budgets where they could.
Data released Saturday showed that shoppers seized on Thanksgiving and Black Friday deals, spending significantly more than last year online and slightly more in stores, though they grew more selective about what they put in their carts.
Shoppers made an estimated $11.8 billion in online purchases on Friday, a 9.1 percent increase from last year, and spent $6.4 billion online on Thanksgiving, according to data from Adobe Analytics, a data collection and analysis platform.
Another metric from Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures retail sales across cash, credit cards and digital payments, found that online sales on Black Friday rose by 10.4 percent and in-store sales increased 1.7 percent over last year. Apparel and jewelry were among the top spending categories as retailers promoted steep discounts.
“Despite questions about its relevance due to the prolonged, monthlong promotional season, Black Friday remains the most significant shopping day of the holiday season,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert at RR Donnelley, a communications company.
Economists are looking at this year’s holiday sales as an indicator of how the economy is doing amid economic challenges: the longest government shutdown, changes to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits and a weakening job market. Despites the strong Black Friday sales this year, analysts say that may not reflect how retailers will perform overall this holiday season.
The numbers released on Saturday offer an early look at how the holiday shopping season is shaping up. The National Retail Federation is set to update its figures on Tuesday.
The holiday season, which stretches through November and December, has arrived as many households are feeling squeezed. Consumer confidence has wavered as prices remain elevated and incomes show signs of flattening, all while some businesses grapple with the added strain of tariffs. The most recent federal data showed retail sales rose a modest 0.2 percent from August to September, missing expectations, though sales were still up 4.2 percent from a year earlier.
And while retailers’ sales numbers have improved, shoppers were selective in their Black Friday purchases. According to real-time data from Shopify, a provider of software to retail businesses, the top product categories by volume among its clients on Friday included vitamins, T-shirts and skin-care items, while demand for electronics was softer.
Benefiting most were discount retailers, which saw “good traffic” and shoppers “leaving with one or two large bags,” said Katherine Black, a partner in the consumer practice of global management consulting firm Kearney. Chains like TJX Companies, Burlington Stores and Ross Stores were poised for a robust season as bargain-minded shoppers trade down from high-priced goods, according to Placer.ai, an analytics firm.
“Value continues to be the centerpiece of the holiday season,” said Brian McCarthy, principal and retail strategy leader at Deloitte Consulting. “Black Friday-Cyber Monday promotions are an easy way for shoppers to capture those deals.”
The National Retail Federation said earlier this month that it expected holiday sales to rise 3.7 to 4.2 percent over last year, and predicted sales would reach as much as $1.02 trillion. Deloitte also forecast that holiday retail sales would top $1 trillion. Retailers selling discretionary or luxury items, such as Best Buy and Williams-Sonoma, have posted an increase in revenue in recent quarters, suggesting that some consumers will still splurge on big-ticket gifts. But chains focused on essentials and lower-priced goods continue to outperform.
Take Walmart. Revenue for the quarter that ended in October jumped 6 percent from last year, prompting the company to raise its sales outlook. Target, however, moved in the opposite direction: Sales slipped 1.5 percent, missing expectations as shoppers pulled back on some discretionary items.
Walmart, which is temporarily offering discounts on about 7,400 items, more than half of them in the grocery aisles, is seeing increased traffic from higher-income families, its chief executive, Doug McMillon, said on a call with analysts earlier this month. And wealthier households, buoyed by rising financial markets, are expected to keep spending briskly, helping to offset a slowdown among lower-income shoppers. According to Moody’s Analytics, the top 10 percent of households now account for nearly half of all U.S. consumer spending.
Analysts also say shopping assisted by artificial intelligence played a big role. Retailers including Target, Shopify and Walmart partnered with OpenAI ahead of the holidays, making it easier for consumers to search for deals or generate product suggestions. Salesforce reported that traffic from third-party A.I. agents jumped more than 300 percent during Black Friday over last year, both in the United States and abroad.
Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s director of digital insights, said the use of generative A.I. helped deliver “higher-than-expected” overall spending on Thanksgiving.
Over the past decade, Black Friday has evolved from a single frenzied day of in-store chaos into a weekslong blitz of digital promotions. Slightly more shoppers returned to brick and mortar stores than last year — drawn in part by giveaways from chains like Target and Lowe’s. Videos shared on social platforms showed long lines and a sense of nostalgia among customers happy to revive the old-school Black Friday ritual.
“Retailers seem to have had a successful start to the season, but there are still 28 days to Christmas and the season is rarely won on Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” said Michael Brown, a partner and Americas retail leader in the consumer practice at Kearney. “Retailers will need to continue to entice the customer to keep shopping without eroding slimmer margins due to tariffs.”
Kailyn Rhone is a Times business reporter and the 2025 David Carr fellow.
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