President Trump came into office vowing to punish trading partners he accused of ripping off Americans. China was target No. 1, and he promised tariffs on Chinese goods far steeper than those on any other country.
One year later, the outcome is striking: China now faces roughly the same tariff rate as everyone else. A year ago, Mr. Trump’s import taxes on Chinese goods had climbed so high that trade between the two countries nearly froze and Chinese officials mocked the standoff as “a joke.”
Some Chinese goods still carry a set of tariffs left over from the first Trump administration, including sector-specific duties on steel, aluminum and other products. The average overall tariff on Chinese imports now stands at around 22 percent, according to Nomura, the Japanese bank. That is higher than the rest of the world, but far less than what Mr. Trump had threatened.
As leaders from the world’s two largest economies meet this week, China appears, at least for now, to have outmaneuvered the United States. Three numbers help explain how the two sides got here and what could come next.
125%
China’s peak retaliatory tariff rate
Mr. Trump vowed to “make China pay” in his second presidency.
He didn’t waste any time. In February 2025, he imposed an additional 20 percent tariff in an effort to force Beijing to curb the flow of fentanyl and its chemical precursors into the United States. Then in April, on “Liberation Day,” as Mr. Trump called it, he placed tariffs on nearly every country in the world, including a 34 percent levy on China.
Other countries rushed to negotiate, lobbying Mr. Trump and mounting charm offensives to soften the blow. China, however, retaliated with tariffs of its own on the United States, and the two sides traded ever-steeper duties.
When Mr. Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent, China responded with a 125 percent tariff on American goods and vowed to “fight to the end.” Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, warned publicly that “there are no winners in a tariff war.”
Then, Beijing reached for a different kind of weapon.
90%
The share of rare earths refined in China
By mid-April 2025, China and the United States were effectively under a mutual trade embargo because of the extra-high tariffs they had imposed on each other.
China switched gears, restricting exports of certain rare-earth metals and magnets essential to aircraft, semiconductors and cars. While rare earths are not especially scarce, China refines more than 90 percent of the global supply.
Beijing’s strategy worked. By May, both sides were negotiating a truce. Mr. Trump lowered tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 percent, while China, which imports far less from the United States than it exports, cut its tariffs on American goods to 10 percent. “We’re not looking to hurt China,” Mr. Trump said at a White House event after the détente.
Since then, Mr. Trump appeared to soften his stance toward Beijing, said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation.
By October, China was tightening its grip on rare earths again, expanding its export controls and adding five more elements to its restricted list. Mr. Trump responded by threatening another 100 percent tariff, calling Beijing’s move “extraordinarily aggressive.”
Negotiators rushed back to the table. China resumed some rare-earth shipments. In exchange, the United States halved its fentanyl tariff, lowering overall tariffs on Chinese goods to about 47 percent — a figure that would later come down even more after the Supreme Court ruled in February that Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were illegal.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi agreed to a yearlong pause on the most severe measures that is set to expire later this year.
In the months leading up to this week’s summit, the Trump administration largely held its fire. “The marching orders seem to be: Don’t mess up our meeting in May,” Ms. Elms said.
$1,185,077,690,000
China’s trade surplus with the world
China’s trillion-dollar trade surplus in 2025 hit a record, underscoring the enormous gap that still separates Beijing and Washington on trade.
Even with tariffs in place, China is running a large but narrower surplus with the United States, selling more than it buys.
Chinese factories also increased shipments to other countries, and some of those goods may ultimately reach the American market, prompting some Trump administration officials to accuse Beijing of seeking backdoor access to the United States.
Trade experts say the current tariff rates are unlikely to last. The Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year dealt the administration a setback. The White House responded by imposing a new 10 percent duty on all countries under a provision known as Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, though those tariffs expire on July 24.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the administration intends to revive some of the struck-down tariffs by the summer, laying the groundwork for broader duties through investigations into forced labor and industrial overcapacity under a provision known as Section 301.
Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm, predicted the Trump administration would soon raise tariffs on China, potentially to 35 percent or more.
Mr. Trump, he said, “will need to be careful not to commit to taking 301 off the table at the coming summit.”
Alexandra Stevenson is the Shanghai bureau chief for The Times, reporting on China’s economy and society.
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