Is it a red wave, or are California voters coming down with a case of blue flu?
These are questions political insiders and data nerds are trying to answer after Republicans showed surprising strength in the first wave of mail ballot returns for next month’s primary election.
GOP voters accounted for 34% of early ballot returns as of Friday, up 8% compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterms, according to data compiled by research firm PDI.
Meanwhile, Democrats made up 41% of early returns, down 7 points from the same moment in the primary election four years ago. Independent ballot returns were up 2% compared to 2022.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a San Diego Republican, cautioned against over-interpreting the numbers but said the trend is encouraging for conservatives.
“When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” DeMaio told The Post.
“It may mean that many Democrats are taking longer to decide on the governor’s race and who ultimately they want to lead.”
The Democratic field is led by former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have shown more feistiness in recent weeks.
On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have a firm lead on Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Most polls have Becerra and Hilton looking like the frontrunners to advance out of the state’s “jungle” primary system, which ignores party affiliation and has created anxiety on both sides of the political spectrum about being shut out of the November runoff.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of political data at PDI, told The Post that the findings are still “anecdotal,” but the data points to two potential trends.
“Some Democrats may be holding on to their ballots because they’re still unsure of this governor’s race, and waiting to see if something breaks the door open like Gov. Gavin Newsom endorsing (a candidate),” he said. “There are a lot of voters who might be afraid of wasting a vote.”
He added, “On the Republican side, they already have a Trump-endorsed candidate (Hilton) so they don’t have to wait.”
DeMaio was semi-bullish on the early returns but also admitted to being “very worried that Republicans have a real risk of being shut out of the governor’s race — and four other statewide races: lieutenant governor, insurance commissioner and superintendent of public instruction.
“We do know Democrats in California have a more negative view of government than Democrats in other states,” DeMaio said.
“Democrats also have a pretty low opinion of Gavin Newsom, and you would think, because he’s the state party leader, they would rally around the top guy. Newsom is not their favorite, and he has been on a downward trend since Prop. 50 passed in November.”
Mitchell said it could be that the crowded field and loss of the Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell — who dropped out of the race after being accused of rape and sexual assault by multiple women — has left Democratic voters with a conundrum.
“I think there is a lack of obvious consolidation on the Democratic side,” Mitchell said.
“They’re still a fractured Democratic field, and the fear for Democrats should be that voters have the ballot right in front of them, but they say they’re not going to vote right now, and then other stuff gets them distracted.”
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