Data guru flags ‘good news for Democrats’ despite redistricting losses

Democratic chances for taking back the House majority took a major hit in recent weeks, but CNN’s Harry Enten found reasons for optimism.

The U.S. Supreme Court ushered in a new era of gerrymandering last month by ruling that it was illegal for Louisiana legislators to create a new majority-Black Congressional district, and Virginia’s Supreme Court last week struck down a voter-approved redistricting measure that likely would have favored Democrats, but Enten told “CNN News Central” that all was not lost for the party.

“Is it a redistricting nightmare for Democrats?” Enten said. “No, but it’s a bad dream that has become reality, and why is that?Because just take a look at the chance that Democrats have to take back the House. According to the Kalshi Prediction Markets, you know, the evening that that Virginia redistricting amendment passed, they had an 86 percent chance of taking back the House, [but] that has fallen significantly, but it is still a majority chance. Look, it’s about a three-in-four shot, 76 percent. Sometimes when I look at it 75, 74, but 76 percent.”

“But either way you look at it, the chance that Democrats take back the house come November, it is very much down,” he added. “They still have the majority chance to take it back, but you know what? Three-in-four things are not guarantees.”

Redistricting complicates Democrats’ path back to the majority because it requires them to win by larger margins to have a chance, Enten said.

“Let’s let’s take a look at the national House vote margin,” Enten said. “Under the current lines, you know, the ones that were fought under in the 2024 election cycle, for example, they needed to win the national House vote by less than a point. They basically just needed to win the national House vote and they’d win a majority. But look where it is now with redistricting. Now they have to win the national House vote by somewhere between three and four points, based, of course, upon what the rest of the redistricting cycle looks like. But either way, you crack this nut. What you’re essentially looking at is Democrats have to climb a higher hill, have to go higher up on the ladder in order to take back the House versus where they were, let’s just say, a few weeks ago.”

“But here’s the good news for Democrats,” Enten added. “The good news for Democrats is look at their current lead, their current lead in the national House vote polls is six points. You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know that six points is higher than three to four. Of course, this is not that big of a difference, right, and you would rather, if you were Democrats, have it to be zero, essentially, and then you’d have a really big margin here. But the bottom line is this: Their lead right now in the national House vote polls is higher than the margin that is necessary in order to take back the U.S. House of Representatives even with redistricting.”