What the bejeezus is going on in California? With mail-in voting opening this week in the June 2 primary elections, the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom remains a hot mess. Among the bloated field of mostly meh candidates — Tom Steyer? Really? — there is no breakout star. Democratic support is so fractured that the two Republicans could place first and second in the all-party scrum, shutting Democrats out of the general.
The whole spectacle has taken on the feel of a bad reality show. “Temptation Island” without the hookups or “The Great British Baking Show” without the custard. And that was before Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed under accusations of sexual predation (which he has denied). The roster of remaining contenders has many viewers shaking their heads and asking: Is this really the best California has to offer?
The Red Tribe
The Tough Guy. Chad Bianco, 58, sheriff-coroner-administrator of Riverside County. Politics: so MAGA.
With more than three decades of law enforcement experience, Mr. Bianco has the Trumpiest campaign patter and a vaguely angry energy. He has distinguished himself as the race’s election-fraud conspiracy theory enthusiast. In February, he opened a fraud investigation into last fall’s vote on Prop 50, the ballot measure enabling a mid-decade redrawing of the state’s congressional map. Swayed by specious claims from activists, he seized more than 650,000 ballots. Early last month, the California Supreme Court ordered a halt to his inquiry — just two days after President Trump endorsed the other prominent Republican in the race, Steve Hilton. So much “stop the steal” energy for so little payoff.
He pitches himself as the antidote to California’s dysfunctional one-party rule by Democrats.
The Crossover. Steve Hilton, 56, former Fox News host and onetime adviser to the former British prime minister David Cameron. Politics: conservative.
Having emigrated from Britain in 2012, Mr. Hilton has a political résumé different from the rest — along with an upper-crusty accent that makes a lad automatically sound more erudite in the minds of many Americans.
He has the PR piece of the job down cold. He has a polished manner, brisk and provocative but not angry. He comes across as sensible and concerned when explaining his zero-tolerance position on homeless encampments and his support of Trumpian immigration policies.
His pitch: Californians are frustrated and desperate for change, which he will deliver, using “common sense” policies to make the state “Califor-dable.” The painful portmanteau aside, Democrats should be wary of him. Mr. Trump’s dog in this hunt, he has led in most polls, and he is almost certain to make the general election. (Remember: All candidates are in one big primary, so the top vote-getter might claim only a small fraction of ballots.)
The Blue Tribe
The Establishment Man. Xavier Becerra, 68, former secretary of health and human services, former California attorney general, former U.S. House member. Politics: progressive.
Mr. Becerra has the most conventionally impressive résumé of the bunch. The child of a mother who emigrated from Mexico, he was the first in his family to graduate from a four-year college, earning undergraduate and law degrees from Stanford. He served as a deputy attorney general for California, a State Assembly member and a U.S. congressman. In 2017, he was appointed California’s attorney general and became a key resistance player, filing more than 120 lawsuits against Trump 1.0. Under President Biden, he became the first Latino to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Things there got rocky. His handling of the Covid-19 pandemic was widely panned.
Mr. Becerra languished in the back half of the Democratic pack until Mr. Swalwell’s flameout gave him a boost. Steady and studious, he is a solid if not inspiring speaker. He has a deep knowledge of the state’s government, its players and pressure points. He seems well suited for the navigating-the-craziness-of-Sacramento parts of the office — less so for the rallying-public-support and shaking-up-the-status-quo parts. For a job this big, he’d need to dial up the alpha energy.
The Young Man in a Hurry. Matt Mahan, 43, former tech entrepreneur and mayor of San Jose. Politics: aggressively moderate.
Smart, ambitious, accomplished, checked all the right boxes on his way up the ladder — think Tracy Flick without the edge. Fresh out of Harvard, he spent a year in Bolivia working on economic development projects, followed by two years with Teach for America. As the story goes, Mark Zuckerberg, a Harvard classmate, talked Mr. Mahan out of law school and into the tech world, where he co-founded a start-up to encourage voter engagement.
He is the choice of California’s billionaires, especially in Silicon Valley. The tech titans and venture capitalists fancy his data-driven, business-friendly approach, and have dumped millions into his campaign.
The young ’un of the pack, he has an earnest, good-government, future-oriented energy and talks about taking on his party’s establishment. Not everyone finds this charming. The state’s powerful labor unions are not a fan — nor is Mr. Newsom, of whom Mr. Mahan has been a tough critic. Plus, he lacks the sizzle Californians seem to prefer in their governors.
Despite a mini-bump post-Swalwell, he is struggling to catch the front-runners. With populism in vogue and people freaking out about A.I., the environment could be tough for a candidate seen as the handmaiden of Big Tech. He’s a comer but may need more seasoning.
The Mean Girl. Katie Porter, 52, professor and former U.S. House member. Politics: progressive.
Elected to Congress in 2018 as part of a Trump backlash, Ms. Porter emerged as a smart, salty, social-media-savvy single mom darling of progressives and resistance Democrats. With her whiteboard and wicked wit, she eviscerated chief executives and Republican officials in House hearings. Quick to criticize her own party, she took an “I’m not here to make friends” approach to the job. She left the House in 2025 after an unsuccessful run for the U.S. Senate.
In this race, she was an early front-runner but took a hit when two videos went viral: One of her tearing into a journalist, the other of her cursing at a staffer. The clips raised questions about her temperament. She has expressed regret for the behavior, and she and her supporters argue she is the kind of fighter Democrats need. She is a great explainer of complicated issues, and has the chops to take on entrenched interests. Still, she has an edge in debates and interviews, and retaining staff was a challenge for her in the House. Can she play well enough with others to get big stuff done?
Mr. Entitled. Tom Steyer, 68, hedge fund founder turned environmental activist. Politics: progressive.
You know the old saying: If at first you don’t succeed at winning the presidency, why not give California governor a try? Like plenty of superrich masters of the universe, Mr. Steyer figures his billions entitle him to skip to the front of the political queue. He jumped into the primary late and blanketed the state with self-funded campaign ads. More than $132 million in spending later (most of it his money), he is polling neck and neck with other top-tier contenders.
He has no experience in political office and can come across as a goofball. He has come under fire because the hedge fund Farallon Capital Management, while under his leadership, invested in a private prison company that now operates ICE detention centers. But, come on, the guy sold his ownership stake in the firm in 2012 and has since issued multiple mea culpas for its contentious investments.
The bigger issue is that he is trying to buy himself a statewide office. Historically, this hasn’t worked so well in California. (Just ask Meg Whitman.) With all that money to throw around and uneven retail skills, he seems perhaps more suited to the role of kingmaker than king. Then again, given the state of this race, he could well wind up the last man standing.
The Underdog. Tony Thurmond, 57, state superintendent of public instruction and a former State Assembly member. Politics: progressive.
He has a compelling back story. His mother, who emigrated from Panama, died when Mr. Thurmond was 6, and he and his brother were sent to live with extended family in Philadelphia. Before entering politics, he worked with nonprofits helping troubled youth. He was elected schools chief in 2018, a particularly rough job during the pandemic years. Reviews of his tenure have been mixed. He has procured major funding. He championed a statewide free lunch program and universal kindergarten. He fiercely opposes parental notification rules involving transgender students. His leadership style has been criticized as toxic.
Polling consistently puts him at the back of the pack.
The Old-Timer. Antonio Villaraigosa, 73, former union organizer, former State Assembly speaker and former mayor of Los Angeles. Politics: moderate to progressive.
When first elected mayor in 2005, he was hailed as a rising star. His tenure had its ups and downs. He became known for his high-profile social life, which included an affair with a TV reporter that led to the dissolution of his marriage.
He has been off the political stage since his second mayoral term ended in 2013, save for an unsuccessful run for governor in 2018. His campaign carries a whiff of nostalgia, like an old fan favorite on a farewell tour. There is some lingering affection, but the thrill is gone.
How did California’s political show jump the shark this season?
The risk of vote splitting is baked into a jungle primary. And some big-name players opted not to run, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, who may somehow think she still has a shot at the White House. As for the glut of lesser lights, there is grumbling that the blue team’s total domination of the state has enabled the rise of largely interchangeable, insufficiently battle-tested candidates. “There no competition quality-wise, philosophically-wise,” the California political legend Willie Brown recently told Politico.
Through it all, a passive Democratic establishment — the show runners if you will — refused to provide useful guidance, letting the chaos spiral. Delegates at the party convention could not agree on an endorsement. Power players such as Mr. Newsom and the former House speaker Nancy Pelosi declined to share their preferences. The state party chairman, Rusty Hicks, issued only weak pleas for underperformers to “honestly assess” their chances.
The system has failed Californians. Voters now face a muddled field of uninspiring choices — and worse still, the possibility of being governed by a leader whose politics clash with the bulk of the electorate’s. The state’s Democrats need to get their act together ASAP. Or else they all deserve to be voted off the island.
Illustration by María Jesús Contreras.
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