Curiosity is one way around politics at the Thanksgiving dinner table. But if a full-blown political argument comes at you anyway, you’ll be ready.
Here are the facts on four raging political debates right now that should help you argue your side.
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1. Is Democracy ruined, or is Trump saving it?
President Donald Trump is trying to create the most expansive presidency in modern history. He’s taking spending and taxing power from Congress, using the military to bomb boats in the Caribbean and patrol American cities, trying to rewrite parts of the Constitution by executive order, denying immigrants due process, attacking courts that rule against him, engineering criminal charges against his perceived political enemies and lashing out at pillars of society, from law to universities to the media.
He’s argued his actions are merited because his opponents weaponized the government against him, citing his indictments in between his presidencies. “This is third-world country stuff, ‘arrest your opponent,’” he has said. “And that means I can do that, too.”
But plenty of experts say there’s no comparison for what he’s doing and are worried about the long-lasting impacts on American democracy. (Some of this he’s succeeded at; some of it the courts have blocked.)
America’s founders worried about authoritarianism and Trump fits that mold when he tries to go around courts or the Constitution to get what he wants, said Meredith McGehee, a government ethics expert who formerly headed the bipartisan political reform group Issue One. “An authoritarian is someone who amasses power to amass more power, often exploiting gray areas in the law to do it,” she said, “or ignoring the rule of law outright.”
But Trump won back the White House despite the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, in an election in which democracy was a top issue for voters. It suggests to some political analysts that “democracy” is in the eye of the beholder — and thus very hard to argue about at a Thanksgiving table successfully.
“Concepts such as democracy and freedom are easily co-opted by politicians for whatever purpose they choose,” said McGehee.
2. Is the economy struggling?
Aspects of the economy are sluggish, but experts say the economy isn’t awful.
Trump insisted this week that affordability wasn’t a major problem and falsely said prices are going down.
The cost of a Thanksgiving meal may be down, but electricity is becoming unaffordable, homeownership is out of reach for some millennials as they approach middle age, inflation remains high and grocery costs keep going up.
There have also been recession-like layoffs in white-collar jobs. Much of the new growth is perched on investment in artificial intelligence — precariously so, some economists worry.
But the economy hasn’t cratered as predicted under Trump’s policies of tariffs and deporting migrants. Unemployment remains relatively low and consumers keep spending.
“Consumers are still spending money,” said Michael Strain, an economist with the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Less than a year ago, but they’re still spending. They wouldn’t be able to if the labor market were really weakening.”
So until there’s more evidence one way or the other, the economy can be what you make of it.
3. Are tariffs raising prices?
Trump has imposed the highest tariffs in about a century, and goods from pretty much every country in the world now cost more to import because of them. By one estimate, Americans are expected to spend $1,800 extra a year because of tariffs.
Trump has given different reasons for his tariffs, from trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries, to raising money to pay down the U.S. debt, to trying to bring manufacturing jobs back to America.
It’s a huge risk. Tariffs are not a modern economic tool and haven’t been proven to be useful for any of this, say mainstream economists. “We haven’t run this experiment in living memory,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors.
But the pro-tariff side is emboldened lately. Consumers are still spending, and some see early signs of a manufacturing boomreturning to the U.S. “Prices and costs are rising, but it has nothing to do with tariffs,” said Nick Iacovella of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a conservative, pro-tariff group. “They can be done without causing harm to U.S. economy and could lead to a lot of great benefits,” he said.
Trump’s tariffs are in legal jeopardy, though. The Supreme Court could soon rule on whether most of these tariffs are illegal.
4. Will Democrats win control of the House next year?
Democrats are bullish about this. The last time Trump was president, Democrats surged back to power in the House in the next midterm elections, impeached him and then defeated him in the next presidential election.
This time, Trump is as unpopular as ever, Republicans have one of the narrowest House majorities in history, and Democrats just won elections in Virginia and New Jersey. A recent NPR/Marist poll has Democrats with their biggest advantage to win back Congress in eight years.
Democratic strategist Molly Murphy acknowledges something unforeseen could change the political landscape. “But we have to play with the facts on the table,” Murphy said, “and I think Democrats win the House.”
The counterargument: “I’m not a big believer in polls,” says Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Main Street Partnership, which supports Republican lawmakers in competitive congressional districts. She says that while Trump is struggling with independents, Republicans in tough races are talking about affordability and winning over independents.
The Senate is a different calculation. Republicans have a slim majority there, too, but Democrats would have to win in states such as Texas and Kansas to retake the majority.
Democrats I’ve talked to say that’s a reach. But Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) told The Washington Post’s Paul Kane he is “much more optimistic” now about winning the majority than a year ago.
The post The Thanksgiving guide to winning political arguments with your family appeared first on Washington Post.
