Democrats have long felt bullish about reclaiming the House of Representatives, but a shifting political landscape has also made their once long-shot hopes of winning control of the U.S. Senate more feasible.
High gas prices and declining faith among voters in President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy have heightened Republican concern that Democrats could overcome the former’s 53-47 advantage.
The GOP remains favored to retain control, given that Democrats would need to win in states that favor Republicans. But those odds have been consistently shifting in Democrats’ favor as Trump’s poll numbers slide.
“In the first administration, the economy was his superpower,” said Lindsey Owens, executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank that works on economic issues. “That phenomenon was critical to his reelection. People remembered him as strong on the economy.”
But those ratings are plummeting. An Associated Press-NORC poll released this week showed 70 percent of those polled in April disapproved of how Trump was handling the economy, up from 61 percent in March. A Fox News pollreleased this week shows more gloom for Republicans: voters trusted Democrats on the economy more than Republicans for the first time since May 2010, and the economy remains a top concern.
To gain control of the Senate, Democrats must defend all their current seats on the ballot and flip at least four red states — all of which Trump has won three times.
“That’s where, ultimately, the majority is going to be won or lost,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan elections website and newsletter.
Republicans plan to fight hard for their incumbents and seek to flip Democratic seats as well, even as Democrats post impressive fundraising hauls.
Here are the 11 states that Cook Political Report says will determine Senate control.
Democrats’ best pickup opportunities: North Carolina, Maine, Ohio
Each of these states has an electorate that Democratic strategists view as likely to break their way in 2026.
In Maine, five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins holds the distinction of being the lone Senate Republican representing a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Strategists in both parties widely view Maine as a toss-up. In June, Maine Democrats will face an ideological and generational choice between Gov. Janet Mills, 78 years old and the state’s first female governor, and her more antiestablishment rival, Graham Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer and military veteran. Platner has faced scrutiny for old online posts and a chest tattoo that he had altered after public controversy over whether it was antisemitic.
Democrats have recruited well-known former politicians in Ohio and North Carolina who have repeatedly won statewide. Former senator Sherrod Brown (D) is running in Ohio to oust freshman incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R), who was appointed when JD Vance took office as vice president.
In North Carolina, former governor Roy Cooper (D) will face Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair endorsed by Trump, in what’s expected to be one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. There is no incumbent in the race as Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring.
Republicans’ best pickup opportunity: Michigan
Michigan has its second open Senate race in two years, and Republicans see their narrow loss in a 2024 Senate race there as a road map to victory in the swing state this time.
Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring. It’s one of two Democratic-held Senate seats on the ballot this fall in states where Trump won in 2024. (The other is in Georgia.)
Republican Mike D. Rogers, a former congressman who lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) by 19,000 votes two years ago, is making a second run and has Trump’s endorsement ahead of the GOP primary in August. Democrats have a heated three-way race featuring candidates that span the Democratic ideological spectrum.
Democrats’ tougher pickup opportunities: Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Nebraska
Trump won all four of these states by double-digits, making them much tougher targets for Democrats.
But both parties see them as battlegrounds this year.
In Alaska, former congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) is challenging two-term incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R). No Democrat has won a Senate seat in Alaska in nearly two decades, but Peltola won Alaska’s lone House seat in 2022 in a special election. She narrowly lost reelection in 2024. Democrats see her as a strong candidate in an anti-incumbent year, but Republicans are hopeful they can hold the seat.
In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring, creating an open seat in the onetime swing state that Republicans have been dominating for years. But polling suggests shifting political tides, and its comparatively cheaper media market makes it appealing for national parties to spend heavily. Two Democrats from the state legislature, Rep. Josh Turek and Sen. Zach Wahls, are the presumed front-runners in the June primary, while U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has pulled ahead of her primary competitors.
In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state representative and seminarian, has been aggressively fundraising since winning his primary, while Republicans are headed to a May runoff in which Trump has stayed on the sidelines. Sen. John Cornyn, a four-term incumbent and GOP stalwart, is facing the state’s firebrand attorney general, Ken Paxton, whom state Republicans impeached but failed to remove.
In Nebraska, Democrats are essentially hoping for a Republican loss to an independent to help reduce GOP power in the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), the former governor, faces independent Dan Osborn as the most well-resourced opponent in the race.
Republicans’ tougher pickup opportunities: Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota
Republicans are seeking to pick up seats in Georgia, which Trump won in 2024, and New Hampshire, which Harris carried by less than three points. Minnesota is a longer shot.
In New Hampshire, voters have sent Democrats to Washington in recent years but elected Republicans to run their state government. The retirement of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) created an open seat. Two Republicans, both former senators, are seeking their party’s nomination — John Sununu, who lost to Shaheen in 2008, and Scott Brown, who lost his Senate reelection bid in Massachusetts and in 2014 also lost to Shaheen. Rep. Chris Pappas (D) is his party’s front-runner.
In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is the country’s only Democrat facing reelection in a state that elected Trump in 2024. Republicans have a crowded three-way field without an obvious front-runner in the May primary, which could lead to a June runoff. Trump has not weighed in on that primary.
In Minnesota, Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking reelection. While Trump lost the state by 4.2 percentage points in 2024, Republicans see an outside opportunity for a pickup depending on who emerges from the August Democratic primary.
Theodoric Meyer contributed to this report.
The post Democrats could actually retake the Senate. Here are the races to watch. appeared first on Washington Post.
