WASHINGTON — With a fragile ceasefire set to expire with Iran in a matter of days, President Trump is still deciding between diplomacy and a resumption of fighting that may ultimately hinge on his definition of victory.
Negotiations have continued over the last week between the warring sides over a potential agreement that would end the conflict and curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with interlocutors from Pakistan passing messages that have kept talks alive. Tehran has floated an extension of the two-week ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, that is under active consideration by the American side.
But the Islamic Republic has simultaneously vowed retaliation over a new U.S. blockade of Iranian ports that in effect cut off Tehran’s oil sales, which make up nearly 85% of the country’s export revenue. And the Trump administration is deploying up to 10,000 additional troops to the region, on top of the 50,000 already there, both reinforcing the blockade and threatening ground operations if diplomacy fails.
Conflicting messages from the Trump administration are designed to escalate pressure on Tehran ahead of the ceasefire deadline, potentially extracting concessions at the negotiating table.
But speaking with reporters, Trump has made it clear he is seeking a way to end the war for good.
“I think it’s close to over,” Trump told Fox News on Wednesday. “I view it as very close to over. If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we’re not finished. We’ll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly.”
Negotiations toward that end have proved more challenging than the administration initially anticipated.
Trump has said he started the war in order to eliminate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, degrade its ballistic missile and drone programs, and destroy its navy. But in talks, the Iranians have not relented on their right to enrich uranium, to maintain conventional defensive capabilities and to police traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital waterways.
Tehran rejected a proposal by U.S. negotiators last week for a 20-year pause on Iran’s domestic enrichment of fissile material, with the Iranians countering with a five-year moratorium, one official said.
In his interview with Fox, Trump said the talks were going so well that an extension of the ceasefire might not be necessary. Yet, speaking with the New York Post, Trump suggested he wouldn’t settle for less than an indefinite cap on Iran’s nuclear work.
“I’ve been saying they can’t have nuclear weapons,” Trump said, “so I don’t like the 20 years.”
“I don’t want them to feel like they have a win,” he added.
The U.S. ceasefire with Iran was predicated on the resumption of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. But Iranian threats of a new toll system and warnings of drifting mines have limited traffic, prompting the Trump administration to announce a full blockade of the strait. Despite the U.S. threat, ships have continued transiting the passage this week, suggesting the U.S. blockade has focused more specifically on Iranian ports.
Amid the impasse, global oil prices remain stubbornly high — a concern for Republicans entering this year’s midterm election season. Trump told Fox that he expected prices to drop to prewar levels by the time of the vote in November.
“There’s gonna be a hit, but it’s going to recover, I think, fully,” Trump said. “I think that we will be somewhere around where we were — maybe even lower. And when this is over, I think the stock market is going to boom.”
A second round of high-level negotiations could take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, over the next several days, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters at a news briefing Wednesday.
Pakistani officials traveled to Tehran on Wednesday to deliver a message from the U.S. delegation, potentially laying the groundwork for new, in-person talks.
“He’s made his red lines in these negotiations very clear to the other side,” Leavitt said. “We feel good about the prospects of a deal.”
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