Voters will head to the polls Thursday in New Jersey to decide on a replacement to fill the U.S. House seat most recently held by Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and CNN’s Harry Enten is closely watching that special election as a bellwether for the midterm elections.
Democrat Analilia Mejia will face off against Republican Joe Hathaway in the 11th Congressional District election, which Enten said could go a long way toward predicting the results of November’s contest for control of Congress
“A blowout is brewing, it seems like a blowout is brewing, according to the Kalshi prediction market,” Enten said. “Take a look here: Chance that the Democrat wins in the New Jersey special election by at least 24 points – look at this, a 79 percent chance in a district that Kamala Harris won, but just by nine points. So we’re thinking at this point, at least according to those who are putting their money where their mouth is, that the Democrats can outperform by at least 15 points and the chance of an overall victory, at least 99 percent at this point.”
One of the big reasons we care is because in my mind, if in fact the predictions hold true, it is emblematic,” he added. “It is emblematic, New Jersey 11 is emblematic of what is going on in the suburbs, and Donald John Trump, take a look here. Okay, let’s take a look: Suburban voters on Trump in October of 2024, according to Fox News, he was leading among suburban voters over Kamala Harris by two points. But look at his net approval now. Down he goes into the New Jersey swamps. Look at that, minus-20 points, an over 20-point shift away from Donald Trump among suburban voters very much like the suburban voters in New Jersey’s 11th district.”
The president’s approval among suburban voters is important to Republican candidates because most voters live in the suburbs.
“I will note that the plurality of voters are in the suburbs, that’s why they’re also so important,” Enten said. “Well, it’s about the economy. Look at this: Suburbanites on Trump and the economy … What a shift this is. Harris vs. Trump, Harris was behind Trump, Trump led by six points when it came to who voters trusted more on the economy back in 2024. Look at him now, look at Donald Trump now – down he goes again, minus-32 points, a nearly 40-point shift when it comes to the economy and suburban voters and Donald Trump. Suburban voters have turned on Donald Trump.”
“If this holds for the midterm elections that are going to be happening in November, there is no way on God’s green earth that Republicans will come anywhere close to holding the U.S. House of Representatives,” he added. “They will, in fact, get blown out if these numbers hold.”
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