After months of backroom political intrigue, the results from three special elections on Monday are expected to give Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada a voting majority in the House of Commons, solidifying the Liberal Party’s hold on power.
Since late last year, five members of opposition parties have joined the Liberals, one as recently as last week, bringing Mr. Carney within a single vote of the 172 needed for a majority. Two of the special elections are widely considered to be almost certain Liberal wins that would put him over the top.
If he gains control, Mr. Carney will have broader latitude with his legislative agenda, which is focused on reducing Canada’s dependency on the United States, and give him a stronger footing with which to deal with President Trump, especially on trade.
During his keynote speech to a Liberal Party convention in Montreal on Saturday, Mr. Carney indirectly spoke about the floor crossings.
“This is not the time for politics as usual, for petty differences, for political points scoring,” Mr. Carney said as the partisan crowd rose to its feet and cheered. “United, we will build Canada strong. A Canada for all. A Canada strong that no one can ever take.”
A Tenuous Hold on Power
In the federal election last April, the Liberals retained power under Mr. Carney, a former central banker in Canada and England. But the party fell short of a majority in the House of Commons, Parliament’s lower house, which has 343 seats. (The Senate in Canada is appointed.)
As the head of a minority government, Mr. Carney has always been at risk of suddenly losing power if some members of other parties defeated the government on confidence motions or on its budgets..
The Perks of Control
If the Liberals win just one of the three special elections, their majority will still be constrained because the speaker of the House of Commons, who is drawn from the Liberal ranks, can vote only to break ties and traditionally can only support the government on confidence matters.
But if they win at least two of the special votes, the Liberals will enjoy significant advantages from a clear, if narrow, majority. In particular, they will eventually be able to take control of the House of Commons committees. The opposition parties have used committees to slow the progress of much of Mr. Carney’s legislation — such as bills on bail reform, cybersecurity and border security. They have also combined their voting power on committees to hold special hearings intended to embarrass the government.
A clear majority would also mean that Mr. Carney no longer has to tailor bills to make them acceptable to his opponents.
Special Votes
Two of the special votes are in Toronto constituencies in which Liberal members of Parliament have resigned. One of them was vacated by Chrystia Freeland, who became the most prominent member of Justin Trudeau’s cabinet during his time in office. Her resignation as finance minister in December 2024 set off the chain of events that included Mr. Trudeau stepping down and Mr. Carney entering politics.
Both of those constituencies are considered to be safely in the Liberal camp.
The third election, in a Montreal suburb, was ordered by the Supreme Court of Canada after a Liberal candidate won it by a single vote last year.
Backroom Deals
Four of the five members of Parliament who left their parties to bring Mr. Carney’s so close to a majority were Conservatives.
The other defector, Lori Idlout, came from the New Democratic Party, which fared badly in the last election, failing to secure enough seats to be officially recognized as a party in the House of Commons.
Conservative Turmoil
The decampments and any Liberal majority they may help form are another blow to Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader who suffered the political embarrassment of losing his own seat in the House of Commons in last April’s election.
Mr. Poilievre regained a parliamentary seat through a special election last year. Previous Conservative governments welcomed floor crossers. But after a socially conservative member of Parliament joined the Liberals last week, Mr. Poilievre condemned the practice as undemocratic.
The defections may have been driven less by Mr. Poilievre’s policies than by Conservatives dissatisfied with his combativeness as opposition leader. When Chris d’Entremont, a Conservative from Nova Scotia, became the first floor crosser last November, he was explicit that he left the Conservatives because of Mr. Poilievre’s aggressive and highly partisan approach to politics.
“Rather than knocking people down, we should try to find ways to work together,” Mr. d’Entremont said at the time.
Mr. Poilievre’s style is in sharp contrast to Mr. Carney’s businesslike and pragmatic approach. It is popular with most Conservatives, who overwhelmingly backed Mr. Poilievre’s leadership at a convention in January. But it finds less favor among voters who live outside of Conservative strongholds like Alberta.
A Nanos poll this month found that Mr. Carney was the preferred prime minister of 54 percent of people surveyed. Only 23 percent favor Mr. Poilievre.
Ian Austen reports on Canada for The Times. A Windsor, Ontario, native now based in Ottawa, he has reported on the country for two decades. He can be reached at [email protected].
The post Elections and Defections Are Likely to Unshackle Canada’s Liberals appeared first on New York Times.
