President Trump suggested on Sunday that elevated gasoline prices in the United States might not fall before the November midterm elections, a prediction that continued his mixed messaging and underscored potential political headwinds facing Republicans in the fall.
Mr. Trump had long downplayed a sharp spike in gas prices driven by the war in Iran by casting it as a “short-term increase” that would subside within weeks. But on Sunday, Mr. Trump told Fox News that while he hoped gas and oil costs would drop before the midterms, prices “should be around the same” in November — and might be “a little bit higher.”
Earlier in the weekend, marathon talks between Iranian and U.S. leaders in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough. Oil prices rose after the negotiations foundered.
Strategists in both parties said on Sunday that Mr. Trump’s latest comments posed a challenge for Republicans, who are working to defend their majorities in the House and Senate, as an unpopular war drives up the costs of energy and goods. Douglas Heye, a Republican strategist, said Mr. Trump’s rhetoric was adding to Republicans’ headaches and making it harder for them to blame to inflation on the President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration.
“It’s a very big obstacle,” Mr. Heye said of the rising price of gas and other goods. “It was a big obstacle — that just got a little taller.”
When gas prices rise, the popularity of the president typically falls. And fuel costs have become a core issue in the midterms, as Democrats have made the issue a central part of their argument against Republicans.
Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement that if Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s “midterm pitch to Americans is higher gas prices by Election Day, Republicans are in big, big trouble.”
Iran has choked off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas traveled before the war. On Sunday, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States was $4.13, according to AAA, the motor club, up more than $1 over the last two months.
The jolt to energy prices appears to be spilling across the economy: The overall inflation rate rose to 3.3 percent in March compared with the same time last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The White House responded to the report by describing rising prices as “short-term disruptions.”
Mr. Trump told Fox News that he had told his economic advisers: “I’m sorry, fellas, we’re in great shape. We have to go and take a little journey down to Iran, and we have to stop them from having a nuclear weapon.”
“They all said: We agree,” Mr. Trump added.
Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, said Mr. Trump was caught in a bind and appeared to be “trying to reset people’s expectations.”
But “if gas prices are still $4 or $5 in November, it’s going to be very challenging for incumbents” in the Republican Party, Mr. Conant said, adding that the president would be wise “to get out of the prediction business.”
The offices of Republicans running in some of the most competitive congressional districts in the country expressed hope on Sunday that gas prices would fall soon, despite the president’s latest comments.
Representative Tom Barrett, a Republican former Army officer who represents a swing district in Central Michigan, said in a statement that he wanted the military campaign in Iran to be “swift and measured, not prolonged.”
“I am hopeful that we can bring this to a close in the next few weeks,” he said. “Once there is stability in the region, oil prices and subsequently gas prices will come down, while Americans will be safer because we’ve neutralized one of our most determined enemies.”
A spokeswoman for Representative Mike Lawler, a New York Republican who faces a challenging path to re-election, said the congressman was working to reduce energy prices. Once the conflict “comes to a close, oil prices will come down,” the spokeswoman, Caroline Hunt, said in a statement.
The fighting has been paused after the United States and Iran reached a fragile cease-fire last Tuesday. Mr. Trump said early Sunday that the U.S. Navy would begin a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But later in the day, U.S. Central Command said American forces would start blockading maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports on Monday, apparently stepping back from the president’s pledge to blockade the entire strait.
Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responded to the blockade by warning U.S. consumers, “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4-$5 gas.”
Democrats responded to the developments by deepening their criticism of the president’s handling of the war and the economy.
“Trump chose to start a war knowing it was going to raise gas prices on Americans already struggling to get by,” Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, said in a statement. She added, “Come this November, voters will have an opportunity to set a very different direction for our country.”
Michael Crowley and Parin Behrooz contributed reporting.
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