One silver lining of America’s tenuous ceasefire with Iran is that the United States can stop burning through weapon stockpiles after six weeks of intense aerial bombardment. The Middle East conflict has required diverting key systems from Asia. Getting them back, and quickly manufacturing more, is key to deterring China.
In recent days, the U.S. had been planning to commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy, long-range cruise missiles to the fight against Tehran. These missiles, known by the acronym JASSM-ER, are launched from fighter jets, have a range of more than 600 miles and are designed to penetrate hard targets outside the range of enemy air defenses.
In the event of Chinese aggression against self-ruled Taiwan, the JASSM-ERs would be vital for sinking Chinese warships at port and blocking any invading force crossing the Taiwan Strait. They cost $1.5 million each.
With a pre-war stock of about 2,300 of them, an estimated 786 were fired during the first six days of the Iran conflict, and at least a thousand have been used to date. Lockheed Martin was scheduled to produce around 400 this year but could ramp up production to twice that amount.
Other systems, including Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors, which are even scarcer, have also been used heavily in Iran. A Japanese order for 400 Tomahawks — crucial for countering China and North Korea — faces a delay because of depleted U.S. stocks.
Presidents going back to George W. Bush have spoken of a “Pacific Century,” only to get pulled back toward the Middle East. Once the Iran situation is under control, it’s important to turn the page back to Asia. Because China has not been standing still.
In recent weeks, satellite imagery revealed the People’s Liberation Army has resumed building military bases in the South China Sea, this time on a tiny atoll called Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands. After dredging to reclaim land, China could build a 9,000-foot airstrip, jetties, helipads and structures that could house missiles.
Just as ominously, Beijing has reserved a large swath of offshore airspace for 40 days, covering parts of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, facing Japan and South Korea. China often imposes airspace restrictions for military exercises, but most typically last a few days. This 40-day stretch, which began March 27 and extends to May 6, is highly unusual.
None of this suggests China is preparing for imminent military action. But the timing does not seem coincidental. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month in Beijing. China has a long pattern of moving to reshape the strategic environment in its neighborhood whenever it thinks it can get away with doing so.
It’s impossible to say with certainty how Xi really views the war in Iran. Ostensibly his top advisers are debating the question. On the one hand, yes, the U.S. is distracted again by the Middle East.
On the other, putting aside bluster and backtracking around civilizational destruction, Trump just demonstrated a willingness to use overwhelming force against a faraway adversary to help Israel and other allies in the Gulf.
The U.S. military also showcased its unmatched capabilities. And Chinese air-defense technology didn’t hold up particularly well in either Iran or Venezuela. Hopefully that gives Xi some pause.
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