Riding high in the polls, the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada came tantalizingly close to forming a parliamentary majority on Wednesday after another opposition lawmaker joined his Liberal Party.
The defection by Marilyn Gladu, who had served a district in southwestern Ontario since 2015 as a Conservative, put Mr. Carney just one Liberal seat short of a majority. That would give his government broader powers to pass legislation and reshape Canada in the face of a changing global order.
But it may be just a matter of days before Mr. Carney secures a majority. Liberal Party candidates are favored to win two special elections next Monday in Ontario, and are neck-and-neck in a third race in Quebec.
Popular support for Mr. Carney, a centrist who has led a minority government since being elected a year ago, has continued to increase as he has positioned Canada to confront President Trump’s economic and political threats.
Mr. Carney has called for middle-power nations to rally together amid the breakdown of the American-led, rules-based international order. Nearly 60 percent of Canadians approve of his performance as prime minister, according to polls.
Four Conservative members of Parliament have quit their party to join the Liberals in recent months, further weakening the unpopular Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre. One lawmaker from the left-leaning New Democrats also joined the Liberals.
Special elections will be held Monday to fill vacancies in two Liberal strongholds in the Toronto area, both won by Liberals with extremely wide margins last year.
In Canada, minority governments typically last 18 months before they are forced to call an election by opposition parties. But with a majority, Mr. Carney’s government would be safe until 2029 when the next general election will have to be called, said Elizabeth McCallion, an expert on Parliament at the University of Toronto.
“One of the biggest advantages of having a majority government is the stability that it offers,’’ Ms. McCallion said. “It gives the prime minister more confidence in moving forward.’’
With the latest defection, Mr. Carney’s Liberals currently hold 171 seats out of 343 in Parliament’s House of Commons — one shy of a majority.
Many high-profile government members, including Mr. Carney, have made campaign visits to the electoral district of Terrebonne, northeast of Montreal, in Quebec, where the special election will be held Monday.
Last year, a Liberal newcomer, Tatiana Auguste, captured Terrebonne, part of a region that traditionally backs the Bloc Québécois, a party that supports independence for the French-speaking province. Last year, many traditional Bloc Québécois voters swung to Mr. Carney, believing he was the most capable to respond to Mr. Trump’s punitive economic tariffs and threats to annex Canada.
Mr. Carney’s party won by a single vote in Terrebonne. But Canada’s Supreme Court recently invalidated the result after evidence emerged that a mail-in ballot was returned to a Bloc Québécois supporter — and not counted in the tally — because the wrong postal code was printed on the envelope by Canada’s election agency.
In Terrebonne, campaign posters pointed to a rematch between the two leading candidates in last year’s election, Ms. Auguste and the Bloc Québécois’s Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné. But posters featuring Mr. Carney by himself appeared to outnumber the local Liberal candidate’s on many streets, underscoring his popularity.
At an advance polling station this week, a couple, Sophie Lacoursière and Éric Marquette, both lawyers, said they had voted for the Liberal candidate because of concerns over the economy and the international order.
“My main goal today is to give the Carney government a majority,’’ Ms. Lacoursière said. “It’s for the stability of the country, given the instability in the world.’’
Another voter, Dominic Lafrenière, said he had voted for the Bloc Québécois because he believed the party would defend Quebec’s interests in Canada. He believed that Mr. Carney had little interest in Quebec and that the fear over Mr. Trump’s threats had subsided.
“The Trump effect got Carney elected, but that’s over now,’’ said Mr. Lafrenière, a butcher. “Many Bloc supporters voted for the Liberals last year, but this time, they’ll come back to the Bloc — and the Bloc will win.’’
In an indication of the closeness of the race, two other Bloc supporters, Ginette Grégoire and Pierre Boulanger, both retired schoolteachers, said they believed the Liberals would win, even though both had voted for the Bloc because they want Quebec to become independent.
“It’s in our DNA,’’ Ms. Grégoire said.
Still, both said they believed Mr. Carney was a good leader and that many voters in Terrebonne would vote for his party again.
“He’s managing well,’’ Ms. Grégoire said. “He’s very diplomatic. He’s self-possessed. He takes the right actions to stay composed in difficult situations. He’s very wise.’’
Last year’s extremely tight race had also motivated some apathetic people to turn out.
Josée Roy, a retired electric welder, voted for the first time in a decade, casting a ballot for the Bloc.
“If you want things to change for the better, maybe it’s good to vote sometimes,’’ Ms. Roy said. “Even one vote can make a big difference.’’
Norimitsu Onishi reports on life, society and culture in Canada. He is based in Montreal.
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