The successor to Donald Trump will have a hard time convincing world allies of the United States’ stability, an analyst has warned.
A longer-term test will be put to the US by world leaders because of the two terms Trump has served in the Oval Office. Political analyst Rafael Behr, writing in The Guardian, suggested that even the first term Trump served still has an effect on how other countries view the US.
Behr wrote, “There is a psychological need to believe that the havoc unleashed by Trump, while extreme, is exceptional – a singular event, like the Covid pandemic; painful and costly, but not a permanent change to the order of things. The president is mortal.”
“His powers may be constrained if Democrats prevail in November’s midterm elections. Ceasefires can be brokered. Closed waterways can be reopened. Supply chains can be rewoven.”
“But the Trumpdemic is a more complex syndrome. The US was thoroughly exposed for a full term after the 2016 election, culminating in an acute anti-democratic seizure on January 6, 2021. That severe infection did not cultivate enough immunity in the body politic to prevent a second term that is already proving more virulent in its attacks on probity and basic human decency than the first one.”
“There is no guarantee that a successor to Trump will be able to restore the old constitutional norms, assuming it is even someone who cares to try. Former US allies would be grateful for a less deranged president, but they cannot be sure that sanity would endure longer than any single election cycle. Trust is gone.”
Part of the problem, Behr adds, is that no world leader or intergovernmental body, such as NATO, solved how to deal with Trump as a president.
He wrote, “No democratic leader has fully mastered the art of Trump-whispering because the president doesn’t respect power when it is softly spoken. The EU is still figuring out how to project a unified message.”
Trump has suggested pulling the US out of NATO, calling the alliance a “paper tiger.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized NATO for not backing the Iran war.
Trump argues NATO members weren’t supportive during Ukraine conflict. However, Rubio acknowledged NATO provides crucial basing rights for US military operations globally, though tensions remain high under the current administration.
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