A special election in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District — the seat most recently held by former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene — is the latest opportunity for Democrats to show their strength in special elections. The race advanced to a runoff when neither Shawn Harris, the Democrat, nor Clay Fuller, the Republican, received a majority of the vote in March.
The northwestern corner of Georgia has historically been a Republican stronghold, with Ms. Greene winning the district by 29 percentage points in 2024, while President Trump did even better, carrying it by 37 points. But in a crowded field in which 17 candidates — 12 of them Republican — received votes in the special general, it was Mr. Harris who came out on top with 37 percent of the vote.
Mr. Harris coming out on top was influenced heavily by the large number of Republican competitors, but since the start of 2025, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins in every House special election where they faced off against a Republican.
Special elections, which are called to fill vacated seats, typically draw fewer voters than those that happen on a more regular cycle. The voters who turn out for special elections are typically older and more politically engaged, as well as more likely to be college graduates. Add to that the political headwinds of being the party out of power in the White House during a midterm year, and it would not be unreasonable to surmise that another Democratic shift will happen tonight.
Mr. Harris’s performance in March adds credence to that thought. But the 37-point swing away from Mr. Trump’s 2024 result that Democrats would need to flip the seat is outside of the range seen in special congressional elections since 2025.
The biggest shift in a special congressional election in 2025 came in Florida’s First Congressional District in the race to replace Matt Gaetz. That district saw a 23-point swing to the left from Mr. Trump’s 2024 margin of victory. Though notable, that shift was not enough to flip the district.
Mr. Harris, a retired U.S. Army officer, topped Mr. Fuller by 2 percentage points in March. But that was with the Republican vote split among at least a dozen candidates. There were only two Democrats in the field beyond Mr. Harris, and they combined for fewer than 3,000 of the nearly 116,000 votes that were cast.
The winner tonight will complete Ms. Greene’s term, which runs until January 2027.
The campaigning in the 14th district is far from over.
On May 19, the state will hold its regular primaries with the seat once again in play. And either party’s primary could advance to a June 16 runoff if winners fail to receive a majority of the vote. The general election for the full term is on November 3.
The next special congressional election will be on April 16 in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District for the seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill when she became governor. The seat is rated as solidly Democratic by the Cook Political Report, though the performance of Analilia Mejia will be closely watched. She is a progressive who won a narrow victory in February’s primary in a suburban district that has often favored moderates.
Christine Zhang is a Times reporter specializing in graphics and data journalism.
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