Marjorie Taylor Greene, the formerly Trump-aligned Republican, resigned from Congress in January after she broke with the president over foreign policy and his reluctance to release Epstein files, and he threatened to back a challenger.
Now the voters in her former district in northwest Georgia are going to the polls Tuesday to select her replacement.
Ms. Greene has not endorsed in the race. Since her resignation in January, Ms. Greene has repeatedly attacked President Trump on social media, writing in recent weeks that his decision to go to war in Iran was a betrayal of his “America First” stance as a candidate.
Clayton Fuller, a Republican backed by Mr. Trump, is favored to win the election to fill the remainder of her term in the heavily Republican rural district. Mr. Trump easily won the district in 2024, and Ms. Greene won re-election with 64 percent of the vote. The Democratic candidate, Shawn Harris, has proved to be an able online fund-raiser but has yet to crack 40 percent in two elections in the district.
Still, special elections tend to draw lower turnouts and carry a higher possibility of surprises.
Here is what to watch:
Watching the margin in Georgia
There is little question about who is going to win the Georgia congressional seat Ms. Greene vacated this year. Mr. Trump won the district, which covers the rural northwest corner of the state, with 68 percent of the vote in 2024.
After Mr. Trump helped drive Ms. Greene out of Congress with his threat to back a primary rival, the president wound up endorsing Mr. Fuller, a local district attorney, to succeed her.
National Democrats have little optimism they can flip the seat, but they will be watching to see how much the Democratic candidate, Mr. Harris, can shave from the Trump margin.
Mr. Harris took 37 percent in the first round of voting, making him the top vote-getter in a crowded field of candidates. If he eclipses 40 percent and cuts the margin of defeat to less than 20 points, Democrats will likely declare victory.
Mr. Harris is a cattle farmer and retired Army brigadier general who ran against Ms. Greene in 2024.
Mr. Trump came to the district in February to hold a rally with Mr. Fuller. Should Mr. Fuller prevail, he will provide House Republicans a much-needed vote in the narrowly divided chamber.
A test for Republican voters on Iran
Mr. Harris, the Democrat, has made opposition to the Iran war a centerpiece of his closing arguments, saying that it is needlessly risking American lives and driving up fuel prices. “The price of gas and diesel and fertilizer costs is killing us,” Mr. Harris said in an interview.
Ms. Greene, the Republican he hopes to succeed, has emerged as one of the most vocal Republican opponents of the war.
Mr. Fuller, who played college basketball at Emory University in nearby Atlanta, has sought to focus on immigration policy and his endorsement from Mr. Trump. But he has voiced support for the war, saying “Our country is safer because of what President Trump has done regarding Iran.”
Though the district is heavily Republican, a closer than expected result could speak to voter unease about the Iran war, which has led to a spike in gas prices and fears of inflation. The average price of gas in Georgia is $3.72, according to the AAA motor club, which is below the national average but up from $3.20 a month ago.
Georgia’s Democratic Party has rallied support for Mr. Harris, and the actor Samuel L. Jackson recorded a video urging the district’s Black voters to support him, but there are no signs national Democrats believe Mr. Harris can win. The national committees have not invested in the race.
The special election is not likely to be the last time Mr. Fuller and Mr. Harris face off. Both are on the ballot again in the May 19 primary for this November’s general election, which will decide who serves the next full term.
Reid J. Epstein is a Times reporter covering campaigns and elections from Washington.
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