Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, according to U.S. intelligence reports.
Iran has also retained a significant amount of its missiles and mobile launchers, the reports say.
The Pentagon and White House this week claimed to have made substantial progress against Iran. At a briefing this week, the Pentagon said it had struck 11,000 targets in Iran in five weeks of war.
But American intelligence agencies have cast doubt on how close the United States is to destroying Iran’s missile capability, a key goal in the war. While U.S. intelligence agencies have not estimated the number of remaining launchers with high confidence, Iran retains the ability to use its remaining arsenal of ballistic missiles and missile launchers to attack Israel and other countries in the region, according to American officials briefed on the intelligence.
Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, has outlined the “severe diminishing” of Iran’s missile launch capability as one of the key war aims. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has spoken repeatedly about the damage the U.S. and Israeli attacks have done to Iran, and the declining numbers of Iranian missile strikes.
“Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” Mr. Hegseth said on Monday. “Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them.”
As Mr. Hegseth and White House officials have pointed out, Iran’s rate of missile and drone launches has fallen sharply since the beginning of the war.
“Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90 percent, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement.
That reflects the success of the U.S. and Israeli strikes, to a degree. But American intelligence agencies also believe that Iran is keeping more of its launchers in bunkers and caves to protect them from attack.
Iran, according to American officials, wants to retain as much of its missile launch capacity as it can, so that it can continue to apply pressure if the war drags on, or threaten the region after it ends.
Even with its more careful use of its launchers, and its reduced arsenal, Iran has continued to strike at Israel.
Iran has launched about 20 missiles a day at Israel, firing one or two at a time, according to current and former American officials. A senior Western official said on Friday that Iran was firing 15 to 30 ballistic missiles and 50 to 100 one-way attack drones a day.
Former officials said fractures inside the Iranian government have hampered command and control, making it difficult for Iran to launch large numbers of missiles at once.
Precise assessments of Iran’s current capability have been unclear because Iran is deploying significant numbers of decoys, and the United States is not sure how many of the apparent launchers it has destroyed were real. While the U.S. has an estimate of Iranian missile launchers from before the war, that number was not precise. It has also been difficult to assess how many launchers may be in bunkers or caves struck by American or Israeli airstrikes.
And while the underground bunkers, caves or silos can appear at first to be damaged, in reality Iran has been able to quickly dig out the launchers and fire them again.
CNN earlier reported that Iran retains half of its missile launchers. Officials said that number falls within the range detailed in intelligence reports, but that the reports did not offer specific numbers of the remaining launchers.
Haaretz, the Israeli publication, reported earlier that Iran had used bulldozers to dig out missile launchers that had been buried, or “corked,” in underground bunkers.
Aaron Boxerman in Jerusalem and Mark Mazzetti in Washington contributed reporting.
Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.
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