Well into the second month of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, it is worth taking stock of where things stand. Here’s what things looked like in Iran and its neighborhood before the war began in late February.
In June of last year, Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities had been, in President Donald Trump’s words, “completely and totally obliterated” by a 12-day bombing campaign by U.S. and Israeli air forces using stealth bombers and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. The head of Israel’s Defense Forces agreed with Trump, saying, “We have set Iran’s nuclear project back by years, and the same goes for its missile program.” That conclusion was reiterated by Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission, which added that “the achievement can continue indefinitely” as long as Iran did not get access to nuclear materials — and that access was actively being denied.
Iran’s military capabilities had been substantially weakened by separate Israeli air campaigns in 2024, which killed key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders, destroyed air defenses and struck ballistic missile facilities. Israel also heavily bombed Iran’s most deadly militia ally, Hezbollah, killing several layers of its top leadership and, by many analyses, crippling the military strength of the organization. It had already taken apart Hamas in Gaza. Finally, Israel’s campaign against the Iran-backed militias that supported the Syrian government played a part in the collapse of that regime in December 2024.
In other words, Iran was in very bad shape militarily. In addition, its economy was a mess, destroyed by the tightening of sanctions and its own corrupt regime. Hardly anyone could argue that Iran posed a threat to its neighbors, let alone to the United States, which sits roughly 6,000 miles away. Trump effectively admitted this on Wednesday, stating the U.S. doesn’t “have to be there … But we’re there to help our allies.” It is worth noting that neither European nor Asian allies were consulted, and many have spoken out against the war.
In fact, reports suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sold Trump on this war not because Iran was an imminent threat, but because its unprecedented weakness provided an opportunity to strike hard to effect regime change. Why else would Trump have closed his brief announcement at the start of the war by urging the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the regime — a call echoed by Netanyahu in his own message?
So far, aside from devastating Iran and crippling its already weak military — which was predictable in such a one-sided contest — few of the desired results have been achieved. The regime in Iran has not fallen. Key leaders have changed, for the worse. The 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who famously banned the development of nuclear weapons — was killed and replaced by his son, who is said to be more hard-line than his father. In general, the IRGC, who have always been more militant, seem to be ascendant, which makes sense in times of war.
The Strait of Hormuz, which was free and open despite many threats through 47 years of U.S.-Iran tensions, is now blocked by the new leadership (whom Trump terms “much more reasonable”). Trump says that after a few more bombing runs the strait will open “naturally,” because Iran will want to export its own oil. This misreads the situation: The strait is not closed. It is open to Iranian oil, which is flowing freely, especially to China. The net result of the war is that Iran now makes about twice as much on its daily oil sales compared to before the conflict. In addition, if it continues to charge a reported $2 million per passing tanker, Tehran will make hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue every month. Enough to rebuild its military and more.
America’s Gulf allies now face a far more unstable and tense environment than they did before the war. Their business models require peace, stability and economic integration. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, had mended ties with Iran in 2023 because he wanted to calm geopolitical waters to pursue his ambitious program of modernization. Today, all that progress is in jeopardy as oil exports are crippled and the region has gone from having a path to becoming an oasis of stability to a cauldron of conflict.
The obvious winner is Russia, which will make billions of extra dollars each month as the price of oil rises and the U.S. waives sanctions against it. Ukraine loses as weapons that it needs are diverted to the Middle East. Europe loses as it faces crushing energy costs and Trump demands that NATO fight his war and threatens to pull out of the organization if it doesn’t. (It’s worth noting that NATO is a defensive alliance and did not fight in the wars in Korea, Vietnam or Iraq.) China gains as the U.S. gets mired in another Middle Eastern conflict and loses its focus on Asia. Meanwhile, Beijing’s massive investments in green technology shield it from many of the costs of this war, and it appears to the world as a more responsible, less disruptive superpower.
Of course things could change. Wars are unpredictable. But so far, has any U.S. military action ever racked up so many costs for so few gains?
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