This past winter wasn’t the most brutal the D.C. area has ever seen, but — as the coldest in more than two decades — it packed some punch. Snowfall ended up a little below average but made up for it by lingering on the ground longer than usual, assisted by the persistent cold.
Officially, 10.6 inches fell at Reagan National Airport, D.C.’s official observation location, somewhat below the normal of 13.7 inches (the average amount from 1991 to 2010).
Ahead of the winter, Capital Weather Gang readers and contributors anticipated near-average amounts of snow, overshooting how much would fall. But two readers, recognized below, perfectly predicted the 10.6 inches.
Reader winners
Of nearly 800 readers who participated in our annual snowfall prediction contest, the most popular forecast range was 12 to 18 inches. The second-most-popular range — which included the actual amount — was 6 to 12 inches. Forecasts ranged from zero to more than 60 inches.
The pair of readers who nailed the winter snowfall forecast are Brian Kane and Steve Musser. Congratulations to this duo! They earn richly deserved bragging rights.
Nine other readers were within 0.1 inches of being correct and merit honorable mention:
- Resul Ceviz
- Alexander Clavette
- Annie Ding
- Mary Dotson
- Mark Hajjar
- Latrell Holland
- Tyler Langenbach
- Chris McNulty
- Alexis Russell
How others did
Of Capital Weather Gang meteorologists, reporters and contributors, the best prediction came from Amudalat Ajasa, who called for 10.8 inches, only 0.2 inches off the mark.
Jason Samenow finished in second place for the second year in a row, with his forecast of 11.1 inches.
Among the four D.C.-area TV station outlooks, ABC7 had the best forecast, predicting 10 to 15 inches.
Finally, among the five forecasters from private companies who we queried, Judah Cohen of Verisk AER had the best forecast. He hit the seasonal total of 10.6 inches on the nose. AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok was not far-off, with his call of 11 inches.
Reviewing Capital Weather Gang’s winter outlook
Our team’s detailed winter outlook, released Nov. 13, was a solid one this year, though not perfect. We predicted 8 to 14 inches of snow along the Interstate 95 corridor — which was on the money.
For temperatures, we leaned the right way — predicting near- to slightly below-normal conditions. But we missed on the magnitude and persistence of the cold. D.C.’s average winter temperature of 35.6 degrees for December to February was 4.1 degrees below normal and the coldest since 2002-2003. Each of the three core winter months was colder than normal — a rarity. We correctly predicted a cold December and January but wrongly forecast a mild February.
Overall, we would grade our outlook as a B on a scale of A to F.
How the winter’s snowfall unfolded
The 10.6 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport was the fourth-snowiest winter of the past decade. Even so, it struggled to snow for long stretches, despite the enduring cold.
The snow season got off to a promising start. December’s 1.5 inches of snow was the most since 2017. Then, 7 inches fell in January, 2 inches above normal.
But snowfall in the back half of winter underwhelmed. Only 1.1 inch fell in February, which averages 5 inches. And the 1 inch that fell in March was half the norm.
Other locations in the area also saw a bit less snow than normal. Washington Dulles International Airport’s 18.5 inches was 2.5 inches below average. To the north, Damascus, Maryland (in northern Montgomery County), received 25.5 inches, also just shy of average.
Most of the season’s snow fell during the Jan. 25 “Snowcrete” storm. It plastered the region in a thick, long-lasting icy mess that stuck around for weeks. Some parking lot piles still linger to this day.
Past winners
Below, find winners of past Capital Weather Gang snowfall forecast contests:
2024-2025 | 2023-2024 |2022-2023 | 2021-2022 | 2020-2021 | 2019-2020 | 2018-2019 | 2017-2018 |2016-2017 | 2015-2016 | 2014-2015 | 2013-2014 | 2012-2013
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