In his address to the nation Wednesday night, President Donald Trump said that if there is no deal with Iran’s surviving leaders in the next two to three weeks, he will “bring them back to the stone ages.” Good. Trump does not need a deal to end Operation Epic Fury. In fact, he is much better off without one.
Rather than waiting for Iran to agree to the conditions he has put on the table, he can simply impose the peace terms he has set unilaterally.
Here’s how to do so in five steps:
1. Complete all remaining military tasks. Trump said the war will “continue until our objectives are fully achieved.” So which tasks remain? Seize or destroy Iran’s fissile material so the regime cannot easily restart its nuclear program (or give what Trump calls its “nuclear dust” to terrorists for a dirty bomb). Take out all the remaining targets on the military’s list. Implement the innovative plan that administration sources tell me Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper has prepared to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, and then hand the mission over to a multinational armada made up of countries who receive oil from the strait, which must take responsibility for keeping it open. Or, alternatively, the United States can charge a substantial “escort fee” for each ship passing through the strait, which would be waived for countries participating in the mission. And then, finally, either take control of Kharg Island, by seizing or blockading this linchpin of Iran’s energy export sector, or destroy it to cripple Iran’s ability to fund terrorist proxies and a military rebuild.
If the U.S. completes these tasks, it will have a stranglehold over Iran, and the regime will never again be able to hold the world’s economy hostage. U.S. military commanders believe that these objectives can be achieved in the next two to three weeks, but the determination of when the mission is complete should be conditions-based. Success matters more than speed.
2. Eliminate the Iranian leaders who were spared for the purpose of negotiations. Trump reportedly asked Israel not to strike certain Iranian leaders so he would have negotiating partners. If those leaders refuse his terms of surrender, their existence has no remaining purpose. Trump should issue one last ultimatum, then unleash Israel to take them out in a final barrage of leadership strikes.
3. Unilaterally declare victory. No ceasefire. No peace agreement. When Cooper informs the president that he has achieved all the military tasks set out for him, Trump should announce that he is suspending military operations.
4. Impose peace terms. Trump should announce to the remnants of the regime that all the demands he put forward are now in effect and will be imposed by force if necessary. If Iran violates any of his terms — by trying to rebuild its nuclear or ballistic missile programs, for instance, or providing support for its terrorist proxies — the U.S. and Israel reserve the right to strike at will. Iran tests America’s resolve at its peril.
5. Bar Iran from firing on protesters and set conditions for eventual regime collapse. Trump should inform the regime that the U.S. will tolerate no more massacres and executions. If the Iranian people take to the streets and the regime fires upon them, the units and leaders responsible will face elimination. Each time they kill innocent Iranians, the U.S. and Israel reserve the right to respond by killing Iran’s political and military leaders.
The threat of such strikes should hang over the regime like the sword of Damocles. It would be a game changer. Right now, Iran’s surviving leaders believe that Trump’s boot will come off their necks in a few weeks’ time. It may require a few surgical strikes after major combat operations have ended to disabuse them of that notion, but once they understand that a missile could fall on them from the sky at any moment for any violation of Trump’s terms, that pressure will begin to break the regime’s will and ability to rule.
It will also create space for the Iranian opposition to organize and challenge the regime. When Iranians see that their oppressors can no longer kill them with impunity, they will lose their fear and become bolder in challenging them. The combination of external military pressure from the U.S. and Israel and internal pressure from the Iranian people will fracture the regime and create an opportunity for Iranians to replace the regime’s murderous theocracy with a pro-American government that is an ally for peace.
This final element is essential to the long-term success of Trump’s Iran campaign. Forcing the regime from power in four to six weeks was never a military objective of Operation Epic Fury. But it is also true that if the current regime survives in some form, everything Trump accomplished in this war will be reversible. New leaders will take the place of those who have been killed, and capabilities that have been destroyed will eventually be rebuilt. America’s respite from the Iranian threat will be temporary. And once that threat reemerges, there is no guarantee we will have a president with the courage of Donald Trump to repeat what he has done.
Operation Epic Fury will be a success for the ages. As Trump put it Wednesday night, “Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.” But the only way to make the success of Operation Epic Fury permanent is to create conditions for the regime to collapse. Trump told the Iranian people, “When we are finished, take over your government.” The bombs have done their work. Now Trump must help the Iranian people do theirs.
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