Democrats are fretting aboutthe race to replace term-limited California Gov. Gavin Newsom — with a field so crowded that the two Republican candidates could lock Dems out of the general election in an overwhelmingly blue state.
And Democrats definitely have reason to worry, prominent polling and redistricting expert Paul Mitchell told The Post.
Mitchell — who works at voting data firm Political Data Inc. and is the architect of Newsom’s Prop 50 gerrymandering effort — created a tool that mathematically predicts which candidates will make the top two in the June primary to advance to November.
Currently, it gives around a 17% chance for both Republicans to make the November runoff. That number is far from the 2% to 3% mark Democrats need to feel safe, Mitchell said.
“They have a valid reason to be freaked out,” he added.
The tool, which runs simulated elections based on polling data, campaign finance and other factors, consistently gives GOP candidate Steve Hilton around a 73% chance of securing a top-two spot. It gives the other Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a 40% chance. None of the other candidates, all of whom are Democrats, have a higher probability.
The state’s Democratic Party had been urging lower-polling candidates, such as former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa or former state controller Betty Yee, to exit the race. That way, more of their votes could go to higher-polling candidates like Rep. Eric Swalwell, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former congresswoman Katie Porter.
That strategy won’t likely work anymore, Mitchell said.
“They can’t really drop out; they still would be on the ballot,” he noted. “And so they’ll still get votes.”
Mitchell pointed to the case of former state Sen. Leland Yee, who withdrew his 2014 candidacy for secretary of state after the FBI arrested him on racketeering charges. Yee nonetheless came in third with 380,361 votes.
Instead, the pollster said he’s that heard organizations are potentially looking at changing their endorsements or spending their money differently.
“Those kind of things can have the impact of changing the outcome of the election,” he said.
As for Republicans, their best option is not to try to “game” the system to improve the odds of an all-GOP runoff, Mitchell said. Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio’s Reform California group has been urging Republicans to not split their vote evenly between Hilton or Bianco — otherwise there’s a real risk neither make it to the top two.
“With a great risk of a shutout if Republicans split their votes, a choice must be made — one driven by data,” DeMaio said. “Whichever Republican candidate for governor is leading when you cast your ballot should receive your vote.”
It may actually be in GOP’s interest to put a single Republican candidate on the November ballot. The risk is catastrophic if the GOP gambles and misses out completely come November, Mitchell said.
“There’s no expectation Republicans are going to win statewide, but if they don’t have somebody on a statewide ballot, then they can’t have somebody to kind of rally troops to turn out the vote,” Mitchell explained.
That means Republicans would suffer tremendously in down-ballot races, from school boards to statehouse seats, he noted.
California Democrats, on the other hand, still have that 82% chance or so of having one Democrat make the runoff. But they shouldn’t get too comfortable with those odds.
“The odds were in Hillary Clinton’s favor,” Mitchell said.
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