Dear reader,
Many of the numbers we’ve cataloged in recent weeks — longer commutes, rising traffic deaths, dwindling housing supply — have been moving in the wrong direction. This week, though, we turn to the very troubling subject of murder, but with some strikingly positive news.
The U.S. has generally seen homicides fall since the sky-high murder rates of the 1990s. But when the pandemic hit, lethal violence climbed in many cities. It’s plunging again in recent years, and in some places, it’s hitting record lows.
No one who pays close attention to crime rates takes this news for granted — violence could rise again at any time. But credit for the lower murder rate is going in part to new approaches to violence prevention that have taken root in communities across the country.
Over the past several months, our reporter, Shayla Colon, has been talking to dozens of people involved in violence prevention in U.S. cities — police officers, health care workers, outreach workers, faith leaders and others. This week, she kicked off our series on preventing violence with a look at the homicide rate and one of the cities that managed to bring it way down.
— Matt Thompson
What’s the state of homicides in America?
Though the official national homicide rate for 2025 has yet to be released, an analysis of data from 40 cities that was published in January found it might be the lowest in over a century.
The official rates are expected to be released later this year by two sources: the F.B.I., which collects homicide reports from police departments around the country, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which tracks death certificates. The totals from each source don’t exactly match — the C.D.C.’s figure is typically higher as it includes deaths of negligence and self-defense — but both show significant declines since 2020, when there was a sharp uptick in murders.
The agency’s latest report, from 2024, logged the rate at five homicides per 100,000 people. That was a 15 percent drop from the year before, making it the largest year-to-year decline on record, according to Jeff Asher, a crime analyst.
Officials in cities that have historically been plagued by murders have celebrated the steady drop in the homicide rate. Baltimore had a 60 percent decrease, hitting a record low last year. Salt Lake City, Chattanooga, Tenn., and El Paso — vastly different cities with populations under 1 million people — each saw its homicide rate slashed roughly in half between 2019 and 2025.
What can we learn from Camden, N.J.?
The phenomenon has been highly pronounced in Camden, N.J., which was once among the nation’s deadliest cities. In 2012, the murder rate there hit a record high, and the city responded with drastic changes, including shutting down its police force to give way to a new county-led department.
Community groups, like youth programs and so-called violence interruption organizations, were also integral to reducing crime. Camden has now cut its rate to levels not seen in decades, and it experienced zero homicides over the past summer and winter.
As part of our series on violence prevention, I spoke with dozens of people involved in the work in Camden, and they told me that the changes are palpable in a city that now feels safer.
“I see the moms out there jumping double Dutch with their children,” said Stanley Winrow, a violence intervention specialist at Connect4Peace. “That’s a beautiful thing. That’s what community is.”
What drives changes in the murder rate?
As in Camden, a number of factors most likely drove the national rate’s decline.
Patrick Sharkey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University, said the drop could partly be attributed to the end of the pandemic, during which a surge in gun purchases and changes in day-to-day routines caused the rate to rise. Funding from the American Rescue Plan Act, which was passed in 2021, also helped stabilize cities, he said, and bolstered their police departments.
Funds from the act “meant that they could provide resources for mental illness, crisis response, addiction, community organizations,” Sharkey said. “These are the organizations that kind of provide the foundation for people to come together, and people to be supported.”
Still, it’s notoriously challenging to pinpoint what exactly caused the rate to improve, or what drove the sudden rise in 2020, because it’s difficult to empirically tie any single factor to a drop in violent crime. The uncertainty leaves many experts fearing the recent downward trend will reverse just as mysteriously as it started.
“At some point this will plateau and flatten out,” Asher, the crime analyst, said of the recent drops. “Are we at that point? I have no idea.”
Though a decline in murders is certainly good news, the U.S. still has a long way to go:
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Murder rates in America are still far higher than they are in most wealthy countries. For example, the recently improved rate of the U.S. would be considered a national crisis in Germany, where the rate in 2023 was less than one homicide per 100,000 people.
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Historically, violent crime is perceived to be more prevalent than crime rates indicate. But that may be changing, according to recent Gallup polls. In 2025, 49 percent of Americans said that crime in the country had increased since the previous year, compared with 78 percent in 2020, and 70 percent in 2015.
What can I read to learn more?
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Homicide isn’t the only crime with a declining rate. As our colleagues Shaila Dewan and Lazaro Gamio recently reported, rates of other crimes — like motor-vehicle thefts and robberies — also appear to have fallen.
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In Philadelphia, community groups have been working with the city to address violence by giving neighborhoods environmental face-lifts.
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After a 2010 Supreme Court decision prevented states from enacting strict gun-control policies, states that loosened their gun laws lost more children to shootings, a June 2025 study found.
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Weeks before a gunman killed two children last summer at a church in Minneapolis, the Trump administration cut funding to a local program focused on preventing mass violence. State officials said that decision would severely weaken their ability to identify future threats.
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A deadly shooting at an office building in Midtown Manhattan last year raised the question: How safe is the workplace? Our colleagues found that it can be tricky for companies to determine how much to spend on things like better camera systems and armed security guards.
— Shayla Colon
Your turn
Test your knowledge: How far do you think the homicide rate has fallen in Camden since 2012, the city’s deadliest year on record?
Tell us what you think: For our series on violence prevention, we’re looking for perspectives on what counteracts violence. When violence recedes, what fills the gap? How would you measure the reverse of violence? Let us know at [email protected].
Following up: Last week’s newsletter noted that average commute times were creeping back up after the pandemic briefly summoned an alternate universe where commutes were becoming obsolete. But we might not have given enough space to those of you who embrace your semi-daily trips to and from work.
A recent dramedy has been playing out on the ceiling of Grand Central Terminal in New York, where a shiny red heart-shaped balloon has been floating for more than a month. Perhaps it’s a reminder from the universe to enjoy serendipity wherever it can be found.
The Headway initiative is funded through grants from the Ford Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF), with Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors serving as a fiscal sponsor. The Woodcock Foundation is a funder of Headway’s public square. Funders have no control over the selection, focus of stories or the editing process and do not review stories before publication. The Times retains full editorial control of the Headway initiative.
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