After nearly one month at war with Iran, President Trump’s standing with the public seems mostly steady.
On one hand, his approval rating hasn’t gone up: There certainly isn’t the usual “rally around the flag” effect that has benefited other presidents in the opening stages of military conflicts. Instead, Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 40 percent, according to our average. That’s a weak number under any circumstance, but it’s especially poor during what might ordinarily be a galvanizing moment for the country.
On the other hand, his ratings haven’t collapsed. They’ve fallen only by a percentage point or two, and some may be wondering why he hasn’t taken a bigger hit. After all, the military campaign goes against Mr. Trump’s “no new wars” promise, and it has divided some MAGA conservatives. For good measure, the polls show that a majority of the public opposes the war.
From that perspective, the war might look like the latest example of Mr. Trump’s political resiliency. He’s largely unscathed — again. But if you think he’s insulated from any political consequence from the war, that would be going too far. There are enormous downside risks to his presidency if the war goes on.
Of course, a geopolitical and economic catastrophe is far from inevitable; Mr. Trump could declare victory and end the war tomorrow. But if it persists indefinitely? He’s survived a lot over the years, but a protracted war combined with economic dissatisfaction is a far different challenge. Historically, quagmire abroad and high prices at home are the ingredients of a failed presidency.
Should Trump’s ratings have collapsed already?
The war is unpopular. Republicans are showing signs of division. Under the normal rules of politics, shouldn’t this be an enormous problem for Mr. Trump? It’s not so simple.
For one, Mr. Trump is already so unpopular that it’s harder for him to lose support. On average, 39 percent of voters support the war in Iran, and 54 percent oppose it, according to Silver Bulletin. That makes the war about as popular as Mr. Trump himself.
With such little support to start, Mr. Trump’s ratings can fall only if he alienates longtime supporters. On Iran, that’s at least conceivable. The war is at odds with the preferences of the “America First” faction of MAGA, and there are early signs of intraparty dissent. MAGA commentators have been divided, and the polls show slightly more Republican disunity on the issue than usual. In a Pew Research survey published Wednesday, about 70 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approved of the war, while 12 percent “strongly disapproved.”
Still, it doesn’t necessarily follow that antiwar Trump supporters would quickly turn on the president. The war is just one issue — an important issue, to be sure, but one of many that might affect someone’s views of the president. The kind of voter who approves of Mr. Trump’s performance today probably approves of his handling of many important issues, including divisive ones like immigration. Only a sliver of MAGA supports Mr. Trump simply because of his America First foreign policy and would oppose him otherwise.
And with the war just one month old, it would not be surprising if many of Mr. Trump’s supporters took a wait-and-see approach. They can point to military successes like degrading Iranian forces and killing several key Iranian leaders. And at every point, Mr. Trump has suggested that military operations might end soon. It’s easy to see how even those skeptical of Mr. Trump’s actions would still hold out hope.
The worst case
Mr. Trump’s willingness to back down has been a political strength during his second term, including pulling back “Liberation Day” tariffs and declaring victory in Minneapolis while adjusting ICE’s approach.
But while negotiations or promises can make it sound as if the war will soon be over, it’s also possible to imagine a more protracted conflict. It’s happened before. While the president has talked about talks, there’s no clear endgame in sight, and many presidents have chosen escalation before accepting defeat. There are plausible escalatory steps, like seizing Kharg Island. And even without escalation, protracted negotiations and a drawn-out conflict could increase gas prices and strain the economy.
This is a politically toxic combination. Historically, high gas prices or a weak economy can do enormous damage to presidential approval. The same can be said for a foreign policy quagmire, whether it’s the Iraq war or the Iran hostage crisis. When the two go together, it can end in political catastrophe. Harry Truman (Korea), Jimmy Carter (Iran) and George W. Bush (Iraq) saw their approval ratings sink into the 20s with the combination of a foreign policy nightmare and high prices.
When presidencies fail in the postwar era, this is usually how it happens. If you define a failed presidency broadly — say, an approval rating under 35 percent or the president’s party losing the next presidential election by at least five percentage points — most cases involve a combination of a foreign policy quagmire abroad and high prices or recession at home.
There aren’t many exceptions, and even those have some echoes: George H.W. Bush presided over foreign policy success but faltered amid a deep recession. Richard Nixon doesn’t quite qualify, as Republicans lost by only two points in 1976, but he was hobbled by the OPEC oil embargo, which hit alongside Watergate.
Over the last decade, Mr. Trump’s political opponents have been waiting for an episode of his extraordinary conduct to bring about his political collapse. It hasn’t happened. As a result, it has appeared that Mr. Trump can survive a lot — seemingly everything. Up until this moment, though, he hasn’t faced the mix of economic and geopolitical miseries that typically bring down presidencies. He may find that combination far more challenging to overcome. And even if he can muddle by, it might not save Republicans from defeat in the midterm elections, or even from a loss of Senate control.
Nate Cohn is The Times’s chief political analyst. He covers elections, public opinion, demographics and polling.
The post Is Iran a Political Problem for Trump? Tell Me How Long the War Lasts. appeared first on New York Times.
