It’s Thanksgiving week, one of the busiest travel times of the year. Weather forecasters said that a series of storms sweeping across the country may disrupt travel plans, with heavy rain and mountain snow expected in the days before the holiday.
Frank Pereira, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, said “significant snowfall totals” were probable because of a storm system moving east from the northern Rockies on Monday, followed by lake-effect snow behind it, especially from Wednesday until early Thursday.
“Somewhere on the order of four to six inches across portions of North Dakota into Minnesota,” he said. “Parts of upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin will probably see some of the heaviest amounts, upward of 18 to 24 inches in some spots.”
Mr. Pereira added that the snow would be accompanied by strong winds, potentially leading to whiteout conditions and snow drifts.
Another storm system over the southern Plains, Mr. Pereira said, would also be one of the “biggest concerns” leading up to Thanksgiving. The storm is expected to bring areas of heavy rain and severe weather to portions of the Southeast beginning Monday.
“Especially from northeast Texas into parts of Arkansas, northern Louisiana and across the lower Mississippi Valley into Mississippi,” he said.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this area for being at some risk, a level two on its five-point scale, for severe weather through Tuesday afternoon, noting the possibility of large hail, some gusty winds and a tornado or two.
Beginning Tuesday, Mr. Pereira said, there was an additional potential for showers and thunderstorms that could produce heavy local rains across portions of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast, though they would not be as heavy as Monday’s rain.
Widespread rain is also expected to head northeast, toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast through Tuesday and Wednesday. Mr. Pereira said the rain in these regions would probably “slow travel for sure,” but heavy downpours or severe weather were not expected.
Here is a breakdown by region of what to expect in the coming days, including the weather outlook for Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City.
The Northeast
This week through Thanksgiving Day:
On Monday, a weak weather system moving across eastern Canada is expected to brush past areas of northern New England, bringing light rain or snow showers. Otherwise, conditions should remain mostly dry, though chilly, with temperatures in the 30s and 40s, through Tuesday afternoon.
Later Tuesday, a system coming out of the Southern Plains on Monday night is expected to move into the Northeast, bringing two rounds of widespread rain. The first should arrive in New York State on Tuesday evening, before moving into New England from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, where freezing rain and mountain snow are possible for areas of Vermont and New Hampshire.
As that system leaves Maine on Wednesday evening, a second wave of rain is expected to move across New York State through Wednesday night, mostly clearing New York by Thanksgiving morning, but then possibly lingering over Maine.
Much of the Northeast is expected to experience a cool, breezy Thanksgiving afternoon, with some lake-effect snow possible downwind of the Great Lakes.
For the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City, some early morning rain may be possible, but otherwise the day should be dry, cool and breezy.
The rest of the week:
A sharp drop in temperatures is expected beginning Friday, with highs plunging around 20 degrees from midweek, then returning to the 30s and low 40s after the weekend.
Cold conditions should persist through the weekend, with continued lake-effect snow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Most of New England and the coastal Northeast should remain dry but cold.
Another system is expected to move into the Northeast, bringing widespread rain and mountain snow until early next week.
The Mid-Atlantic
This week through Thanksgiving Day:
Similar to the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic is expected to be affected by a storm moving in from the southern Plains, bringing two rounds of rain.
The first will arrive Tuesday afternoon and should mostly clear the region by Wednesday morning. The second should move in early Wednesday and depart early Thanksgiving morning. Most of the rainfall is expected to be light.
Thanksgiving Day is expected to be mostly pleasant with dry, bright conditions, though the weather will probably turn cooler as colder air gradually pours in from the north, with a few snow showers possible.
The rest of the week:
A sharp drop in temperatures is expected beginning Friday, with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Quiet weather holds through Saturday, before another system spreads rain over the region into the new week, with the heaviest downpours expected starting Monday evening.
The Midwest
This week through Thanksgiving Day:
Light rain is expected to spread across central and northern parts of the Midwest on Monday, including Kansas, Missouri and Iowa, then expand into Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, with heavy downpours through Tuesday night, before clearing.
A fast-moving western system is expected to bring snow to Montana and the Dakotas on Monday. A surge of cold air with light snow will then spread farther into the northern Midwest, while the central Midwest will remain comparatively milder.
By Tuesday, the storm will intensify over Minnesota, producing heavier snow — potentially over an inch per hour — along with wind gusts over 30 miles per hour. The storm could cause blowing and drifting snow.
As the storm moves into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on Wednesday, it’s expected to strengthen before clearing into Canada by Wednesday night. However, Mr. Pereira said lake-effect snow was expected to develop in northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula, spreading across the remaining Great Lakes regions starting Thanksgiving morning.
Aside from lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes, much of the Midwest should have a dry and chilly Thanksgiving Day.
The rest of the week:
Late Friday, snow is expected to once again spread from the Dakotas into Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and possibly Wisconsin by early Sunday.
Another storm is forecast to develop across the Southern Plains on Saturday, potentially affecting parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio as it moves northeast from late Saturday through early Monday.
Cold conditions are expected to deepen beginning Friday, with temperatures dropping sharply by around 20 degrees compared to earlier in the week. Snow showers are expected to persist near the Great Lakes.
The Southeast
This week through Thanksgiving Day:
The start of the week and Thanksgiving will be very mild for late November, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal from Florida to the Carolinas.
A storm originating in the Southwest is expected to move out of eastern Texas, drawing in moisture from the Gulf that will set off rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Downpours are expected across Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Louisiana on Monday, and over areas of Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas from Tuesday through Wednesday night.
From Monday through Tuesday afternoon, the Weather Prediction Center has placed northeast Texas, including Dallas; southwest Tennessee, including Memphis; northern Louisiana, including Shreveport; and Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northwest Mississippi, in its third-highest risk category for flash flooding.
By Thanksgiving Day, the Southeast is expected to be dry, mild and pleasant.
The rest of the week:
Much colder air should arrive on Friday, sharply lowering temperatures. However, southern Texas will remain warm, while a new storm is expected to develop north of Texas, spreading further showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southeast from Saturday until early next week.
The Southwest
This week through Thanksgiving Day:
After a weekend storm system leaves parts of Arizona and New Mexico, much of the Southwest is expected to experience a pleasant start to the week. No major weather systems are expected, and most areas will remain dry and mild, with Thanksgiving highs in the 70s and 80s.
The rest of the week:
Dry, settled weather should continue on Friday, before a storm brings snow across the higher elevations of the Rockies through the weekend. Lower elevations should stay dry.
Cooler air is expected to start filtering southward until the start of the new week.
The West
This week through Thanksgiving Day:
California is expected to stay dry and calm through Thanksgiving.
Farther north, a storm is expected to bring rain and mountain snow to Washington and Oregon on Monday, and to spread into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming on Tuesday. Another system should arrive late Tuesday, bringing more rain and mountain snow eastward through Thanksgiving.
Rain is likely on Thanksgiving across parts of Washington and northern Oregon, with mountain snow over portions of the Rockies. Strong winds and cold conditions are expected in the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
The rest of the week:
Friday is expected to remain mostly calm and mild in California, with only light rain over northern parts of the state, as a weak storm system brushes the coast.
The weekend will begin dry and fine, before a stronger storm is expected to move into Northern California on Saturday night, bringing spells of rain southward and snow to higher elevations on Sunday. Cooler air will also spread south.
Meanwhile, Washington and Oregon will experience coastal and valley rain and mountain snow until Sunday morning, before it becomes drier next week. However, much colder air will spill into Montana and the Dakotas, with subzero temperatures possible near the Canadian border.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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