The oil price shock could cost the US economy thousands of jobs a month, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs.
In a note to clients on Thursday, a team of economists at the bank said they anticipate higher unemployment and slower job growth through the end of the year as the impact of higher oil prices ripples across the US economy. In the bank’s baseline scenario, the oil price shock could shave off around 10,000 new jobs a month through the end of the year, even after accounting for expected job gains in the energy sector.
While higher oil prices have historically led to new jobs in the energy sector, those gains could be more muted this time around, given how the oil extraction business has become more efficient in recent years, Goldman said.
The bank also said it expects the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.6% by the end of the third quarter. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4% in February, while the economy lost 92,000 jobs, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report.
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“The upward pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring, with a smaller contribution from higher layoffs, in industries most exposed to weaker consumer spending,” the economists wrote.
Markets have been anxious about how much damage the Iran war could cause to the US economy. Higher oil prices could push up the prices of other goods and raise inflation — but the fallout could extend much further, given that consumers are likely to pull back spending in other areas, hurting growth and potentially causing hiring to slow.
Goldman said it expected the hiring slowdown to be the most pronounced in leisure and hospitality. In the bank’s baseline scenario, the sector could lose around 5,000 jobs a month through the end of the fourth quarter.
Retail trade, manufacturing, and education and health services were also among the bank’s most affected sectors.
The risks stemming from higher crude prices are coming at a time when the labor market has already been steadily cooling, with hiring slowing for most of the past year while job cuts have crept higher. After accounting for downward revisions, the US added 181,000 jobs last year, down from the 1.4 million added the year prior, according to the Labor Department.
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