President Trump can’t stop talking about how much his administration is negotiating with Iran about ending a war that has lasted almost a month.
Iran can’t stop denying those talks are taking place.
It’s an unusual dynamic. Often, when countries are in talks to end a conflict, both of them admit it. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, for example, the two sides have often acknowledged that they’re in cease-fire talks, even as they disagree about the terms of a truce.
But the Iran war is an unusual conflict, and for both Tehran and Mr. Trump, the strategies make sense.
Trump’s strategy: Talk, talk, talk about talks
The United States and Israel’s barrage against Iran has killed many top Iranian leaders and destroyed military infrastructure, among other objectives. It is also unpopular with the American public, partly because it has created a choke point for global oil deliveries that has driven up the price of gasoline.
If you are a president torn between your glee at the success of the attacks and your fears of political backlash that could cost your party control of Congress this fall, what can you do?
Mr. Trump’s answer: Start raising hopes that the war might end soon.
On Monday, Mr. Trump said America and Iran were having “really good discussions” to resolve the conflict. “They want peace,” he added.
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump again posted to social media about productive talks with Iran. He told reporters the talks included Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
How did that work out for him? Not badly, so far. Oil prices are down more than 10 percent globally since he started talking so much about talking. Stock prices, after a bit of a roller coaster, are up.
If nothing else, Mr. Trump could be buying time — politically and otherwise — as more American military assets move into the region.
Tehran’s strategy: Do not talk about Talk Club
Each time Mr. Trump has touted negotiations, Iranian leaders have contradicted the president — almost as if they’re trying to troll him. They denied the discussions Mr. Trump announced on Monday. They denied them on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, one Iranian official accused Americans of essentially negotiating with themselves.
By many accounts, there are, in fact, some levels of talks going on — at least back-channel discussions between intermediaries. So why wouldn’t Iran want to acknowledge them?
Because Iranian leaders most likely have very different political considerations than Mr. Trump. They would like to keep oil prices high, actually; stoking anger among Western drivers is maybe one of their best weapons left to end the war on more favorable terms.
They would also like to stay in power, and defying Mr. Trump, even rhetorically, might help them do that. It projects strength, and it could help them portray Mr. Trump as untrustworthy.
Negotiations fit both strategies
Perhaps, ironically, these competing incentives are probably pushing both parties toward more serious negotiations. American and Iranian officials all have big motivations to negotiate an end to the war with minimal further damage, in terms of life, property and political approval.
It would not be a surprise to see talks intensifying in the days to come — whether they are acknowledged publicly or not.
Jim Tankersley is the Berlin bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
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