An Italian referendum on government plans to overhaul the judiciary was too close to call on Monday, with exit polls indicating that the opposition was fractionally ahead soon after voting closed.
Three broadcasters’ projections suggested that a very narrow majority of voters may have opposed the government’s proposals to change the Italian Constitution and alter how the judiciary is supervised. Yet the margin of error on two of the polls was wide enough that the final results, not expected for hours, were uncertain.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni staked considerable political capital as she campaigned for the measures. She said that the changes would make the justice system “more efficient” and break cozy relationships between judges and prosecutors. Critics said that the measures could expand political influence over jurists.
Under the proposals, regulation of judges and prosecutors, who are now jointly overseen by a single authority, would be split between three new bodies. Prosecutors and judges on the panels, now elected by their peers, would be chosen by a lottery.
The proposed changes were so complicated that many voters did not understand them, making the referendum as much a barometer of Ms. Meloni’s popularity as a choice about judicial change.
If the referendum does not pass, it would give momentum to the opposition parties that urged voters to defeat the measures, which they have described as a political power grab. It would also undermine Ms. Meloni’s standing as the leader of one of Italy’s most stable governments since the end of World War II.
If the referendum squeezes through, it would save Ms. Meloni from a bruising defeat before parliamentary elections that are expected sometime next year.
Ms. Meloni has said that she will not resign even if voters reject the changes.
Motoko Rich is the Times bureau chief in Rome, where she covers Italy, the Vatican and Greece.
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