A bruising election battle in Slovenia, a tiny country with an outsize role as a bellwether of Europe’s political mood, culminates on Sunday when voters decide whether to stick with a center-left governing party or revive the fortunes of Janez Jansa, a pugnacious former prime minister who is an ardent admirer of President Trump.
Mr. Jansa, whose defeat in a 2022 election slowed what had been a surging populist tide across Europe, entered the race with a good chance, according to opinion polls, of returning to power. But he has lost momentum recently amid accusations that his party hired a private Israeli intelligence agency, Black Cube, to smear the governing Freedom Movement party.
A Communist in his youth, Mr. Jansa, 67, morphed into a nationalist as Yugoslavia, which Slovenia used to be a part of, disintegrated in the early 1990s. He has for years taken a combative approach toward his critics.
While in power, he cut off state funding for media outlets that he judged disloyal and railed against migrants as an existential menace. He insisted that President Trump won the 2020 election, describing those who said he lost as “truth denying.”
Election posters for his Slovenian Democratic Party feature pictures of a young boy playing the accordion and ask voters to support the party “so your grandson will still sing Slovenian songs.”
The race is now so tight, polls find, that neither Mr. Jansa’s party nor the governing party of Prime Minister Robert Golob, a former businessman, is likely to win enough seats in Slovenia’s 90-member Parliament to form a government without help from smaller parties. More than a dozen spanning the political spectrum are competing.
Sunday’s vote comes weeks before Hungary holds an election that polls indicate could end the 16-year rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of Mr. Jansa’s and a standard-bearer for nationalist politicians across Europe.
Slovenia, the homeland of President Trump’s wife, Melania, is the most stable and prosperous country to emerge from Yugoslavia’s breakup. But, still haunted by divisions dating to World War II, its two million people are polarized between liberals who see the European Union as a force for good and nationalists who worry that traditional values and culture are under threat from outsiders.
The final days of Slovenia’s election campaign have been dominated by the release of secretly recorded videos featuring a former minister, a lawyer and others connected to the government bragging about their political connections and how they could help a foreign businessman.
The revelations initially provided ammunition to Mr. Jansa’s party to attack the government as corrupt but became a liability after Slovenian journalists and a human rights group, 8th of March Institute, uncovered evidence indicating that the videos were part of a dirty tricks operation orchestrated by Black Cube at the opposition’s behest.
Run by former Israeli intelligence operatives, Black Cube has former clients that include the disgraced Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, and it has been entangled in a number of formerly Communist countries in Eastern Europe.
Three Israeli employees received suspended sentences in Romania in 2022 for trying to intimidate the anti-corruption prosecutor. The company has also been linked to smear operations in Hungary against critics of Mr. Orban.
Marko Milosavljevic, a journalism professor at Ljubljana University and an outspoken critic of Mr. Jansa, said the videos had increased the volatility of the election. “The tensions are extremely high,” he said, “and we don’t know what may happen today, tomorrow or on Sunday with new videos, new claims, new disinformation.”
A Jansa victory, he added, could put Slovenia on the same path as Hungary under Mr. Orban or Serbia under President Aleksandar Vucic and risk making the country “a troublemaker in the E.U. and NATO.”
Prime Minister Golob last week appealed for help from fellow European leaders against what he called a “a clear hybrid threat” to the European Union. He added: “Unfortunately, our far right exploits every opportunity to discredit Slovenia abroad. In this case, it has become clear that it is prepared to align itself with the most extreme para-intelligence agencies, with a single aim — to come to power, even if this means stopping at nothing.”
President Emmanuel Macron of France backed Mr. Golob’s account of events, saying Thursday that the Slovenian prime minister “has been the victim of a clear interference, disinformation and actions by third countries.”
Mr. Jansa initially denied any dealings with Black Cube, or even having heard of it, but later acknowledged meeting with one of its representatives, Giora Eiland, former head of Israel’s National Security Council. He said he had known Mr. Eiland for years and had discussed the Middle East, not Slovenian politics.
Mr. Jansa has long been an outspoken supporter of Israel. While prime minister for a third time from 2020 until 2022, he ordered that government buildings fly Israel’s flag as a gesture of solidarity. His successor, Mr. Golob, has been critical of Israel. His government recognized Palestine as a state in 2024 and last year banned all products originating in Israeli settlements in occupied territory.
Kristina Bozic contributed reporting from Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Andrew Higgins is the East and Central Europe bureau chief for The Times based in Warsaw, on temporary assignment in Shanghai.
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