United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby is warning employees that jet fuel prices have more than doubled in three weeks due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and that the crisis could cost the airline $11 billion annually if prices hold.
In a letter to employees on Friday, Kirby said United is planning for oil to hit $175 per barrel and stay above $100 through the end of 2027. For context, he noted, United’s best year netted less than $5 billion in profit.
“[I]t may be a challenge to continue passing through much of the increased fuel price if oil stays higher for longer,” he warned.
The airline is cutting roughly 5 percent of its planned capacity, axing red-eyes, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday flights during Q2 and Q3, and suspending service to Tel Aviv and Dubai.
Kirby insisted the cuts were temporary and that United would not furlough employees or defer aircraft orders.
“In the short term, that means tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices. So, we are canceling about 3 points of flying in off peak periods (think redeyes, Tues/Wed/Sat flying) during Q2 and Q3 and we’ll pull a point of capacity in ORD when the FAA process concludes. We’ve pulled TLV and DXB service, which represents about another 1 point of capacity. That’s about 5 points of this year’s planned capacity in the short term, and our current plan is to restore the full schedule this fall. To be clear, nothing changes about our longer-term plans for aircraft deliveries or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, but there’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs,” he wrote.
Travelers didn’t share his optimism.
“Glad I visited 7 continents and 111 countries while I could afford to,” wrote Monica Marks, professor of Middle East Politics at NYU Abu Dhabi, on X. “Life is so, so short.”
Software engineer Luis Ball Jr. called the $175-per-barrel scenario “a cataclysm,” and wrote, “scary stuff.”
Writer Ben Panko was more pointed: “No worries, all the incels still fully backing Trump on this don’t fly, much less leave their houses.”
Mike Norton, former vice chair of the Minneapolis Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, noted the whiplash, pointing out the White House had touted falling gas prices just two months ago.
“To give you an idea of how quickly Trump can f— things up, the White House tweeted this two months ago,” he said, sharing a White House boasting of cheap gas. Kirby closed the letter by comparing United’s position to a March Madness bracket, saying the airline was “playing offense.”
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