At least a dozen large Indian drugmakers are set to roll out copies of Novo Nordisk A/S’s blockbuster weight-loss drugs as soon as the patent expires Friday, crashing prices in the country with the third-largest overweight population.
Natco Pharma Ltd. plans to make an injection for semaglutide — the active ingredient in both Ozempic and Wegovy — that will have a starting price of 1,290 rupees ($14) a month, on the first day the generics are allowed. The pen device is expected to launch by April and cost about 4,500 rupees a month, it said in a filing.
By comparison, Novo’s Wegovy pen starts at about 10,480 rupees ($113) in India and about $199 in the U.S. under the self-pay model. Other companies are likely to price the starting dose between 3,000 rupees ($32) and 5,000 rupees a month, according to people familiar with the matter who did not want to be named as the information is competitive.
While Canada was the first to lose patent protection for semaglutide in January, the Canadian health regulator hasn’t approved any generics so far effectively making India the first major market to see a flood of copycat versions. The ensuing price war will be closely watched as the Danish drugmaker faces patent expiries in key markets including China, Brazil and Turkey.
Bloomberg News parsed company filings and earnings call transcripts to identify at least 12 large drugmakers — Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. and Lupin Ltd., among others — that have plans to sell generic semaglutide soon after patent expiry. But the true scale of competition will be much higher.
About 42 drug manufacturers, including smaller ones, are expected to launch products under more than 50 brand names this year, said Sheetal Sapale, a researcher at market data firm Pharmarack.
‘Case Study’
India is “an important case-study for the future” loss of exclusivity on this molecule, Jefferies analysts led by James Vane-Tempest wrote in a Feb. 12 note. The brokerage estimates India’s weight-loss market at about $500 million, which “could rise to $1 billion with the right pricing, adoption and government incentives.”
Demand for these weight-loss drugs is also high as India’s 1.4-billion-plus population faces a higher burden of diabetes and cardiovascular ailments, largely due to increasingly sedentary urban lifestyles. On the other hand, high-calorie diets have led to a large overweight population that trails only the U.S. and China.
Generic drugmakers are also experimenting with a range of delivery formats, including single-use prefilled syringes, single-shot pen injectors, vials, and reusable pens with adjustable dosing, the people familiar with the matter said.
These are aimed at giving patients more flexibility, reducing the cost burden and making adoption of these anti-obesity therapies easier. Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly & Co.’s Mounjaro in India currently come in a prefilled pen with four shots.
The tweaked delivery methods can also build brand loyalty. If a patient gets comfortable using a particular device, they usually wouldn’t switch, Pharmarack’s Sapale said.
“The reputation of the company in this therapy category as well as the delivery system will be the differentiators now” since the underlying semaglutide molecule is the same, she added.
Indian drugmakers have also started forging alliances. Zydus Lifesciences Ltd. this week announced a licensing partnership with Lupin and Torrent Pharma Ltd., while Eris Lifesciences Ltd. has tied up with Natco Pharma for the marketing of the drug.
The generic drugmakers will also focus more on smaller cities where innovator firms have not established a widespread presence, Sapale said. “There will be a lot of noise” in the market as firms fight for share, she added.
Sanjay writes for Bloomberg.
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