The World Trade Organization said on Thursday that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could slow global trade and economic growth more than expected, as high energy prices weigh on economic activity, and travel and transport disruptions put pressure on trade and food supplies.
The group said it was forecasting trade in goods to grow by just 1.9 percent in 2026, down sharply from 4.6 percent growth in 2025. The group had anticipated a sharp drop-off in trade growth as the effects of President Trump’s tariffs settled in and purchases of expensive artificial intelligence chips slowed.
But the organization warned that trade growth could fall by another 0.5 percentage points this year, if prices of both crude oil and liquefied natural gas remained elevated as a result of the Middle East conflict.
If the conflict ends quickly and A.I. spending remains strong, however, trade prospects could improve, the W.T.O. said.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the W.T.O., said in a statement that global trade had remained resilient, in part because of the strength of trade related to A.I., and the lack of retaliation from other countries to Mr. Trump’s tariffs. But she said that an extended conflict in the Middle East would put trade at risk.
“Sustained increases in energy prices could increase risks for global trade, with potential spillovers for food security and cost pressures on consumers and businesses,” she said.
The economic effects of the conflict, in particular the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are rippling around the world. The trade effects are particularly strong given that the region is a key hub connecting Europe, Asia and Africa.
The World Trade Organization said that traffic in the strait had gone from 138 commercial vessels per day to nearly zero since the conflict began in late February. More than 40,000 flights have also been canceled, and transport and insurance costs have increased, the group said.
In addition to disruptions to the oil trade, roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer exports pass through the waterway, the W.T.O. said, posing potential risks to the food supplies of many countries. The blockade has already disrupted shipment of fertilizer to major agricultural producers like India, Thailand and Brazil.
Gulf states could also face food shortages, given their high dependence on imports for products like rice, corn, soybeans and vegetable oil, the W.T.O. said.
Under its base-line scenario, the group sees Asia recording the fastest growth in trade in goods, at 3.3 percent, following by Africa at 3.2 percent, Europe at 1.3 percent and North America at just 0.3 percent. But the W.T.O. said that sustained high energy prices would take the biggest toll on regions that import fuel, which include Asia and Europe.
For 2027, the organization expects global trade in goods to grow by 2.6 percent. It said that it expected global economic growth to moderate slightly, from 2.9 percent in 2025 to 2.8 percent in both 2026 and 2027.
Robert Staiger, the W.T.O.’s chief economist, said that the unexpected economic shock from the Middle East conflict had made it difficult for the organization to make its forecasts this year. The group generally expected trade to slow from unusual highs last year, which were propelled by American firms stockpiling goods ahead of tariffs going into effect, and a boom in imports of A.I. chips to fill data centers, he said. But an extended war could weigh significantly on trade in goods and, to a lesser extent, services.
“The big unknown is the impact of the conflict in the Middle East,” he said.
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade.
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