It’s the second Fed day of 2026, and America’s economic woes are making headlines.
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its March interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. The meeting comes on the heels of a dismal February jobs report and an escalating conflict between the US and Iran that’s thrown oil markets into chaos.
Business Insider will follow the news all day, including insights from economists, market analysts, and central bank leaders. Check back here for updates.
Markets latest: Stocks set to move a little higher, oil benchmarks split
With a hold from the Fed heavily priced in, the conflict in Iran continues to be the biggest show in town in markets.
Relative calm is the prevailing narrative on Wednesday, with futures in all three major US indexes pointing towards gains of around 0.5% when trading begins at 9:30 a.m. ET.
In Europe and Asia, stocks are also trading higher, with Germany’s DAX benchmark 0.7% up as of around 7 a.m. ET, and Japan’s Nikkei 0.6% higher.
Oil’s two main benchmarks diverged a little on Wednesday morning, with WTI oil down 1% to around $94 per barrel, and Brent crude, the international benchmark, up 0.5% to just shy of $104.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of global currencies, was almost completely unmoved, trading 0.03% higher.
A likely hold
CME FedWatch, which estimates probabilities of the Fed’s choices based on market moves, is predicting a near-total chance of an interest rate hold. Holding rates steady could help temper inflation, at the risk of leaving an already sluggish labor market without support. Fed leaders will have to weigh both ends of their dual mandate, which focuses on stable prices and maximum employment.
Powell was optimistic at the January meeting: “The US economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing,” he said. “While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.” However, with rapidly shifting oil prices, the committee’s inflation outlook may now be more tempered.
A tumultuous news month
Central bank leaders last met in late January. Since then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a loss of nearly 100,000 jobs, the Supreme Court voted down many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the US began a war with Iran that cut off a large part of the world’s energy supply.
If the FOMC wasn’t already feeling cautious about monetary policy, they are now.
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