It is another make-or-break moment of wartime leadership for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
Late last week, the Trump administration delivered to Mr. Zelensky a 28-point peace plan that many Ukrainians and their Western allies have called a wish list for Russia, a reward for its aggression and a betrayal of Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader was given seven days to either accept it or potentially watch the United States walk away from any remaining support.
President Trump appears to be doubling down on his statement earlier this year that Ukraine doesn’t “have the cards” to keep fighting, with Mr. Zelensky’s government now under pressure from battlefield losses and a major corruption scandal. But through nearly four years of war, analysts say, Mr. Zelensky has often played weak hands wisely.
While he has publicly acknowledged that the American proposal poses one of the gravest challenges ever to Ukraine, it has also inadvertently strengthened Mr. Zelensky at home, at least for the time being. The 28-point plan has shifted the focus away from a graft scandal that has reached his inner circle and threatened to paralyze his government, allowing Mr. Zelensky to reprise his most successful role: as rally-er in chief.
“When Zelensky is cornered, he tends to go on the offensive,” said Viktor Shlinchak, the head of the Institute of World Policy, an analytical research group.
Perhaps in his tightest corner yet, Mr. Zelensky must decide how hard to push back on a settlement proposal that could bring a pause in the fighting but make it harder for Ukraine to ensure its long-term survival. To find a way through, he will need strong support from his European partners and the Ukrainian public.
Mr. Zelensky, analysts say, has become a skilled political performer in the crucible of war.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Zelensky was nearly three years into an unpopular presidency. A former comedic actor, he was often dismissed as a show-business clown. But his decision to stay in Kyiv, the capital, and film defiant selfie videos on the street as Russia bombed the city helped flip the script. Mr. Zelensky rallied the nation and much of the world to resist, cementing his status as an underdog wartime leader to be reckoned with.
He has since weathered storms that threatened the flow of weapons from allies or his own public support. He staved off catastrophic ammunition shortages by pivoting to drone production at home. He resurrected U.S. support when it flagged over the years, often by making emotional and persistent appeals to lawmakers.
In February, after taking a verbal beat-down in the Oval Office that resulted in the suspension of U.S. military assistance, he moved swiftly to smooth relations with Washington. The flow of aid was quickly restored, and Mr. Zelensky also saw his slumping domestic approval ratings jump.
Each time, Mr. Zelensky maneuvered and survived. That was partly the result of skillful messaging, experts say. He has coupled that this year with a playbook of turning to European allies to drum up support whenever he has come under pressure from the Trump administration.
That’s exactly what Mr. Zelensky did in a series of phone calls over the weekend to discuss the 28-point peace plan.
On Saturday, E.U. countries and Britain, Canada and Japan issued a joint statement demanding changes to the proposal’s most objectionable points for Ukraine, including forcible changes in borders and a reduction in the size of its military. The statement said the U.S. proposal would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.
“I have not seen anybody more effective than him in getting out of Europe what I never thought was possible,” a trend that has been visible since early in the war, said Katarina Mathernova, the E.U. ambassador to Ukraine. Communications, she said, are “his superpower” as he has secured money, weapons and diplomatic backing.
As Mr. Zelensky was turning to Europe for help, Mr. Trump criticized both on social media on Sunday, in a sign of the challenge facing the Ukrainian leader. “Ukraine ‘leadership’ has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts,” Mr. Trump wrote, “and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.”
Before the 28-point plan emerged last week, Mr. Zelensky had appeared to be on the political ropes. He had prompted widespread anger in Ukraine by trying to neutralize anti-corruption agencies investigating his associates. After those agencies implicated his allies in a vast kickback scheme, members of Parliament called for a no-confidence vote on his government. Several members of his party broke ranks and demanded the resignation of top officials in his presidential office.
Then came Mr. Trump’s Thanksgiving deadline for a plan premised on conditions that enraged many Ukrainians, including an offer of amnesty for war crimes. Mr. Zelensky seized the moment.
He has moved to rally both the country’s European allies who have steadfastly stood by him and Ukrainians whose political support for him has waned. On Friday night, Mr. Zelensky released a video with a familiar message set against a heavily symbolic backdrop. From the same street where he defiantly filmed a video on the second day of the invasion, Mr. Zelensky nearly four years later issued a fresh rallying cry.
“I am addressing all Ukrainians now,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Our people, citizens, politicians, everyone. We need to pull ourselves together. Regain our senses. Quit the squabbling. Stop the political game.”
He presented the settlement proposal as a stark choice between forgoing American backing or losing Ukraine’s “dignity” by acquiescing to Russia’s terms. He prepared Ukrainians for possible concessions while dissociating himself from the plan by highlighting the American pressure.
Analysts have noted that Ukrainians over the course of the war have been willing to table their domestic political frustrations in the face of what they see as an existential threat.
Ukrainians are likely to support Mr. Zelensky in the negotiations because he is “the only official representative of Ukraine who embodies the majority’s conviction that we cannot sign a capitulation proposed by Russia,” Mr. Shlinchak, the policy analyst, said.
“We have no other legitimate leader,” he added. “And because of that, we have no alternative.”
Mr. Zelensky’s political future may ride both on how he handles the negotiations with the Trump administration and, after that, how he deals with the corruption scandal. To some Ukrainians, failing to directly address that scandal could be his ultimate undoing.
“It is not enough to record a video with eloquent, loud words about dignity and freedom,” Volodymyr Kudrytsky, a former chief executive of Ukraine’s state energy company who was detained last month on what he called politically motivated charges, wrote on social media. “Because society needs an adequate response to completely specific problems that threaten the very existence of our state,” like corruption and battlefield setbacks.
Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014.
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