Nolan Peterson is a former U.S. Air Force pilot and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
After missions as an Air Force Special Operations pilot in Iraq and Afghanistan, I would let down my guard when I returned to base. I could hit the gym, grab a bite from Subway or Burger King, and stop by my squadron’s plywood hut to watch a movie and hang out with friends.
As a journalist in Ukraine, I experienced a very different war. A war with no safe places. A war where you can be killed at any time. The psychological toll of such constant proximity to death, for months or even years on end, can be paralyzing. It certainly was for me.
Drone technology has brought a new reality to modern warfare, and what we’ve seen in Iran is just the tip of the iceberg. Against a modern adversary such as China, U.S. troops would be in constant danger, even far away from the front line.
In 2014, when I first arrived in Ukraine, artillery and rockets were the main threats. As a former combat pilot, this kind of fighting was a rude awakening. I wasn’t used to being on the weak side of a fight, with no quick reaction force to call on for rescue. Even so, the dangers of an artillery war are largely mathematical. When the shelling begins, there are actions you can take to increase your odds of survival. If caught in the open, for example, soldiers spread out and lay flat on the ground to reduce their exposure to shrapnel.
Although survival hinges on not being at the wrong place at the wrong time, I’ve seen how Ukrainian troops have gotten used to daily shelling. Experienced soldiers develop a sort of sixth sense for how immediate a threat is. Many times I would sprawl out on the ground during an outbound Ukrainian cannonade, earning a round of well-deserved laughs from my companions still squarely on their feet.
But drones have changed the calculus. When the enemy is deploying drones, it feels like you’re being hunted. Rather than calculating and acting to improve your chances against an unguided ordnance, you must evade an unseen human operator hunting you down. It’s like having a sniper always following. But unlike snipers, drones pursue you through open doorways and around corners. They chase you around obstacles and wait for you to emerge from a hiding place.
Even for battle-hardened Ukrainian troops, the prolific threat of small Russian drones elicits a different kind of fear. A Ukrainian soldier described it to me like this: “In the first war, from 2014 to 2015, at least you felt you had a fighting chance to survive. This time it’s a fifty-fifty chance of coming back. The drones can always see you. You’re never out of danger.”
Worse, Ukrainian soldiers must also worry about the threat to their families, who face the daily threat of drone and missile strikes on their homes. No frontline experience ever equaled the fear I felt when I had to grab my wife’s hand and sprint to a bomb shelter while Russian drones struck our Kyiv neighborhood.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in January that “over 80 percent of Russian targets are destroyed by drones.” Imagine the carnage U.S. forces would have suffered in Iraq and Afghanistan if our enemies had access to flying improvised explosive devices. Those of us who served in those wars are lucky we predated the drone warfare revolution. That good fortune has expired. Military leaders should not assume that U.S. forces can win the next ground war without paying a heavy price.
Until Operation Epic Fury began last month, the bulk of the U.S. military’s active combat experience came from counterinsurgency efforts in war zones where the U.S. enjoyed air superiority and uncontested logistical support. We were also able to rest and recuperate between missions behind the walls of our fortified bases. The U.S. is unlikely to retain these advantages in future wars against more capable adversaries.
American F-35s and B-2s may still crush an enemy’s air force, but that doesn’t mean command of the low-altitude airspace where small, tactical drones fly. Traditional air power hasn’t stopped Iran from causing death and destruction with its drone strikes.
Ukraine’s war of survival against Russia isn’t a perfect analogue for the future conflicts Americans will face, but we’d better pay attention to the lessons our Ukrainian friends can share. The past two weeks in Iran have highlighted the unsustainability of burning through stocks of high-end air defenses — best for downing missiles and manned warplanes — to combat relatively cheap Shahed drones. If we repeat this mistake in a war with China, the toll will be catastrophic.
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