NATO is expanding its footprint across the Arctic and North Atlantic, increasing patrols and joint operations as Russia’s submarine forces grow more active, two Western officials told Business Insider.
Across air, land, and sea, NATO’s presence and overall activity in the region have more than doubled over the last two to three years, said Vice Adm. Rune Andersen, chief of the Norwegian Joint Headquarters.
Andersen said that the surge is “partially a response to increased Russian out-of-area deployments with the submarines” and “a need to keep track of that.”
Russia maintains one of the world’s largest submarine fleets, with an estimated 64 active boats. The Northern Fleet, based in the Murmansk region on the Barents Sea, operates dozens.
To get from Murmansk to the Atlantic Ocean or the Mediterranean and Baltic seas, Russian submarines often sail west through the Arctic before turning south and going through the North Sea or the waters in between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK — a naval chokepoint known as the GIUK gap.
In recent years, Western military officers have increasingly called attention to the growing Russian naval presence — specifically its submarines — in the Arctic and the North Atlantic, and have stressed the need to monitor this activity to avoid surprises.
If the Russian submarines make it out of the relatively “shallow water and out into the deep Atlantic sea, it becomes more difficult once they’re out in the really big ocean to track them,” said Col. Martin O’Donnell, the spokesperson for Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, or SHAPE, which commands all NATO operations.
“Not that they can’t be tracked, but the difficulty — if you don’t pick them up, if you’re not sensing, if you’re not monitoring things — that increases exponentially and poses a threat not just to Europe, but also to the United States in that regard,” O’Donnell said.
NATO militaries have a range of tools for anti-submarine operations, including frigates, other submarines, helicopters, and other patrol aircraft, and some allies have recently invested in acquiring additional capabilities.
Last month, European nations participated in NATO’s Arctic Dolphin 26 exercise off the coast of Norway, with defense of the North Atlantic and GIUK gap top of mind.
There are, however, other reasons behind NATO’s expanded footprint in the North Atlantic beyond just the Russian naval concerns, O’Donnell and Andersen acknowledged.
The back-to-back accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, which was triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, increased the number of Arctic states within the alliance from five to seven. Helsinki and Stockholm brought more troops, ships, and aircraft into the alliance’s Arctic defense.
O’Donnell also said that alliance activity in the North Atlantic has increased since December, when JFC Norfolk — NATO’s newest joint force command — added Finland, Sweden, and Denmark to its area of responsibility. It now leads the alliance’s new Arctic Sentry deterrence operation.
More generally, there is a greater understanding among NATO states that the North Atlantic and Arctic regions are becoming more strategically valuable, making it critical for allies to maintain a strong deterrent posture there, Andersen said.
The region is full of natural resources, and melting sea ice is creating new trade routes. To prevent Russia and China from gaining military and economic influence in the High North to the detriment of alliance states, NATO’s leadership wants allies to continue prioritizing Arctic security.
One of the key benefits of Arctic Sentry, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said last month, is that “we now have a one Arctic approach, where allies synchronise activities, enhance and expand regular presence throughout the region.”
“It is bringing together what you already have, and adding on top, based on a gap assessment, what we need to do more,” Rutte said.
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