Nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes have battered Iran’s arsenal, and now, the pace of Tehran’s retaliatory attacks appears to be slowing.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that Iran had fired the lowest number of missiles in a 24-hour period since the war began.
“Our strikes mean we’ve made significant progress in reducing the number of missile and drone attacks out of Iran,” he said.
Across the Gulf countries alone, Iran has launched more than 2,100 drones, 500 ballistic missiles and 20 cruise missiles since the war began on Feb. 28, according to a New York Times tally of reports from defense ministries and regional officials. More strikes have hit Israel, but the government is not sharing data about the quantity of weapons coming in.
But there are mounting signs that Iran has had to curb its attacks, according to experts, either because of depleted stockpiles or to conserve weaponry in case the war is prolonged.
Here’s what we know about Iran’s weapon capabilities.
Signs grow that Iran’s weapons are degraded.
In the first two days of the war, Iran launched about 100 attacks on Israel, according to data compiled by the independent Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. That number has since fallen to a handful each day, the data shows.
The slowdown is reflected in figures from some Gulf countries, which Iran has targeted for their alliances with the United States and, in some cases, for hosting American bases.
“Ballistic missile attacks continue to trend downward 90 percent from where they’ve started,” Mr. Hegseth said in his remarks on Tuesday. “And one-way attack drones have decreased 83 percent since the beginning of the operation, a testament to our air defenders and our air-defense systems.”
The United Arab Emirates’ defense ministry said Tuesday that Iran had launched 1,475 drones, 262 ballistic missiles and eight cruise missiles at the country since the war began. From Monday to Tuesday, Iran unleashed about 35 drone attacks compared with earlier in the conflict, when more than 100 drone strikes a day were directed at the Emirates.
Iran fired about 165 ballistic missiles at the Emirates in the first two days of the war, according to the ministry. In recent days, that number fell to about six to 12 daily. Iran also launched cruise missiles at the country in the first two days of the war but none since, the ministry said.
In Bahrain, the military’s daily reports show missile attacks fell quickly at the start of fighting, from 45 on the first day to about half a dozen a day now.
In other Gulf countries, the picture is more mixed or data is harder to come by.
Iran may be trying to preserve weapons.
The slowdown may reflect Iran’s effort to conserve missiles for what could be a prolonged war, said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran may be shifting firepower to closer countries so they will step up pressure on President Trump to halt the war, he said. Iran may also be relying on Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon, to strike Israel, he added.
“They are prepared,” Mr. Citrinowicz said of Iran, “and they are likely hunkering down for what could be a long war.”
Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project and an expert in missile technology who has been analyzing Iranian strikes, said independent confirmation of the number of Iran’s strikes and the weapons used was difficult because countries report differently. What is clear, he said, is that Iran’s capabilities are “not yet at zero.”
Iran generally does not provide information on weapon stockpiles, numbers of retaliatory attacks or types of weapons used.
But a spokesman for the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on Tuesday that Mr. Trump had falsely claimed a day earlier that Iranian missile launches were waning. In fact, he said, the missiles being used now were larger and more powerful than those fired early in the war, according to Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.
Missiles are central to Iran’s strategy.
Iran’s response has revealed the sophistication and reach of its weapons and its ability to reach strategic targets with precision, experts say. Iranian weapons have hit at least nine countries since the conflict began, striking energy installations and U.S. military bases, air defenses and radar systems in the Middle East.
Iran’s missile arsenal, which experts say is among the largest and most varied in the Middle East, is at the center of its strategy.
The program fuels regional tensions, particularly with Israel, which is concerned that long-range missiles could one day be adapted to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran rejects such a notion.
During the current conflict, Iran has relied heavily on its large stockpile of short-range ballistic missiles to strike cities and military installations around the Persian Gulf, many of them less than 100 miles from its coastline. Their limited range can be an asset during a confrontation: Fired in quick succession, they provide little warning time and make pre-emptive strikes more difficult.
In videos verified by The Times, short-range missiles pound targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
“The Iranians have a ton of short-range ballistic missiles in missile bases that were untouched during those previous rounds of conflict with the Israelis,” said Sam Lair, a research associate who studies Iranian missiles at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last June, an exchange of strikes depleted much of Iran’s stock of longer-range missiles, he said. But shorter-range missiles, suited to targets in the Persian Gulf, remained largely intact, he added.
Pentagon officials told lawmakers in confidential briefings on Capitol Hill last week that Iran still retained as many as 50 percent of its missiles and launchers but that the air campaign was whittling that down each day.
Iran remains intent on striking Israel, but only certain classes of its weapons can reach.
The Israeli military this week accused Iran of launching dozens of cluster warheads that separate into about 20 smaller munitions in densely populated civilian areas.
In one case, footage verified by the Times shows an Iranian ballistic missile dispersing cluster munitions over central Israel early this month. The warheads detonate and kill indiscriminately. Since 2008, more than 100 countries have signed an international agreement to prohibit them — though Iran, Israel and the United States have not joined the treaty.
Tehran relies heavily on drones for retaliation.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks have highlighted the growing dominance of drones in the conflict, experts say.
Iran has sent thousands of drones on attacks across the Middle East during the war. Though slower than missiles, drones are cheaper and easier to use in large numbers, require countries to defend their airspace and force airports, ports, military bases and other critical infrastructure to shut or remain on alert.
Among the drones used are variants of the triangle-shaped Shahed, which Russia has deployed in Ukraine, and the Samad, previously deployed by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed militant group in Yemen.
American defense and intelligence officials held closed briefings on Capitol Hill this month to warn lawmakers about the threat posed by Iranian drones, particularly Shaheds, according to a congressional official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
American countermeasures being used in the Middle East include electronic jamming, new laser systems and counterdrones modeled on Iran’s designs. Still, even all these systems cannot protect every target, as shown by the March 1 attack on Shuaiba port in Kuwait, which killed at least six American service members.
Hundreds of drones have also hit targets in the Emirates, including a warehouse at a French naval base, according to France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot. Two drones hit the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia last week.
Iran’s Navy has suffered serious blows.
Iran’s naval forces are divided into two branches: the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, which is part of the regular army, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy, which specializes in unconventional tactics.
Before Iran was attacked, the regular navy had three submarines, eight frigates and two corvettes — small, lightly armed warships — in its fleet, according to data from the defense intelligence firm Janes. It also had 22 small submarines, designed for operating in the shallow waters of the Persian Gulf, according to the U.S. military.
The Guards’ navy was mainly equipped with hundreds of smaller, fast vessels and coastal patrols, according to Janes.
The United States has struck many of Iran’s naval bases and sunk several ships. The U.S. Defense Department said Tuesday that 50 Iranian naval vessels had been taken out of action.
But analysts say that even after these losses, fully stopping Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz route will remain difficult.
Ismaeel Naar, Ana Castelain, Eric Schmitt and Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.
Abdi Latif Dahir is a Middle East correspondent for The Times, covering Lebanon and Syria. He is based in Beirut.
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