President Donald Trump’s critics claim he has taken the United States to war in Iran with no coherent endgame in mind, while some of his own skittish advisers are urging him to end the war prematurely. Both are wrong.
Operation Epic Fury is on its way to a massive success. A patient Trump can achieve what no modern president before him came anywhere close to: the irreversible elimination of the Iranian threat. By contrast, if victory is not decisive, Iran’s surviving leaders could conclude that America lost its nerve and was too weak to defeat them.
So, what is the definition of victory? Three levels of success in Iran are all within Trump’s grasp:
Level One: The United States eliminates the regime’s ability to project force beyond its borders. Trump is well on his way to meeting this objective. After less than two weeks of combat, the U.S.-Israeli combined force has struck more than 5,000 targets. Together, they are systematically dismantling Iran’s air, ground and naval forces, its command and control, nuclear and ballistic missile stockpiles and production capacity, and terrorist infrastructure.
The impact of these strikes is already being felt. Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, reports that Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90 percent and its drone attacks have decreased by 83 percent since the start of the war. Soon, Iran’s ability to strike the U.S. and its allies will be eliminated. “We’re not just hitting what they have,” Cooper says. “We’re destroying their ability to rebuild.”
There are thousands more targets that need to be hit, but if the United States and Israel finish the job, Iran will be militarily neutered — unable to launch missiles, drones or rockets or to provide these weapons to its terrorist proxies. Its nuclear and ballistic missile programs will be decisively set back. It will no longer have the ability to threaten its neighbors or spread terror across the region. That will be a world-changing accomplishment. But this success will be temporary and reversible if the current Iranian regime survives with its will intact.
Level Two: The Iranian regime collapses and is replaced by a new government answerable to Washington. The U.S. and Israel have already killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Trump has reported that at least 48 other senior officials. Taking out so many leaders so soon was not part of the war plan; it was possible only because so many were foolish enough to gather in broad daylight, presenting a target of opportunity. But the initial phase of combat operations is primarily focused not on Iran’s leaders, but on eliminating Iran’s air defenses and retaliatory capabilities.
Once the United States fully establishes air dominance, more leadership targets can be hit. Khamenei’s son, just appointed to succeed him as supreme leader, is certainly at the top of the list. As such decapitation strikes escalate, the regime will begin to fracture from within. Hard-line elements may want to fight to the death, but at least some leaders will probably choose survival over martyrdom, and step forward to cooperate with the U.S. — just as remnants of the Maduro regime in Venezuela are doing. At this level, the will of Iran’s remaining leaders to reconstitute their apparatus of terror will have been decisively broken — creating the conditions for a third level of success.
Level Three: The Iranian people rise up and take back their country. Just a few weeks before military operations began, Iranians took to the streets in more than 100 cities to demand their freedom — retreating only in the face of a brutal crackdown that killed as many as 30,000. Now, the U.S.-Israeli combined force is dismantling the infrastructure of internal repression that carried out those massacres. As it does, Trump told the Iranian people, “Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.” He then urged, “When we are finished, take over your government.”
When the smoke clears, Iranians will probably heed Trump’s call and return to the streets to seize their institutions, just as the German people tore down the Berlin Wall. But it is also possible that democratic change could come more slowly — with a transitional government that eventually gives way to one chosen by the people. Once the climate of fear has been lifted, opposition groups will be free to meet openly, protest and demand their rights. Whether in an instant or over time, Iran could be transformed from totalitarian adversary into a pro-American ally for peace in the region.
Of course, a lot could still go wrong. There is a risk that the regime could prove more resilient than expected, or that civil war could break out. But the greatest risk would be in ending the military campaign too soon before the Iranian regime collapses. Not only would that represent a lost opportunity, but regime remnants could conclude that they had actually won a contest of wills with Trump. For them, any form of survival is victory. Indeed, they may take the lesson that they were saved by providence to continue their campaign of jihad against the West.
By disarming Iran, Trump is already doing more for Middle East peace than has any other president in the modern era. But if he stays the course, he can decisively defeat the regime and replace its totalitarian theocracy with a new government answerable to Washington — or, better yet, its own citizens.
History, and the American people, will reward him for doing so.
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