More severe storms are expected across a large section of the United States this week, with forecasters warning they could deliver all manner of severe weather — including large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and flooding — anywhere from the southern Plains through the Midwest and into the Northeast.
The renewed threat of severe weather comes just days after a wave of storms swept from Texas to the Great Lakes on Friday, producing tornadoes that killed at least six people in Michigan and Oklahoma.
Matt Mosier, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, said at least 11 tornadoes were reported on Thursday and Friday, including one that killed three people and left another 12 injured in Union City, Mich.
On Sunday, the National Weather Service rated that tornado a three on the five point Enhanced Fujita scale, the earliest in the calendar year a tornado of that intensity has struck the state.
Mr. Mosier said similar conditions were possible again on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in some of the same regions that experienced severe weather last week.
On Tuesday, he said, the focus will mostly be on Missouri, central Illinois and into Indiana. “And then as we go into Wednesday, it shifts east of there, in a fairly broad area from East Texas and Louisiana, Mississippi and then all the way up into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania,” he added.
A part of the region that includes Chicago is under what the Storm Prediction Center calls an “enhanced” risk for Tuesday and Wednesday. A wider area that stretches from southwestern Texas to southern Michigan, and includes Dallas and Oklahoma City, is at a slightly less serious but still elevated risk. All told, more than 70 million people live in an area at some risk from these storms.
Forecasters said the storms could deliver wind gusts exceeding 60 miles per hour and hail larger than two inches in diameter, in addition to strong tornadoes.
Mr. Mosier said the storms were part of a “fairly typical spring setup,” when warm, moist air surges north from the Gulf of Mexico and meets with passing weather systems. That interaction often produces multiple rounds of storms across the Mississippi Valley, with active periods followed by brief lulls before the cycle repeats. But pinpointing exactly where and when they will hit is difficult.
The storms are also expected to bring the risk of flash flooding, particularly across portions of the central United States, from the Plains toward the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Here’s a day-by-day look at what to expect:
Monday
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A few severe thunderstorms may develop across the South, especially parts of southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western Alabama on Monday afternoon and possibly continuing into the night into western Georgia.
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The primary threat from these storms will be large hail — some up to two inches in diameter — and strong wind gusts. There is a very low risk of one or two tornadoes.
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There will also be a risk of flash flooding across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and western Georgia, including Atlanta. Forecasters said some areas could receive close to two inches of rain.
Tuesday
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Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains into southern Great Lakes beginning on Tuesday afternoon, and may evolve into longer lines of storms into Tuesday night.
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All types of severe weather are possible, including large hail and wind gusts that could cause damage and tornadoes, especially over parts of Missouri, Iowa and Illinois.
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Repeated rounds of storms may lead to flash flooding in areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin, including Dallas, Tulsa, Okla., and Kansas City, Mo.
Wednesday
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The threat shifts east, in a broad area from eastern Texas and Louisiana through to Pennsylvania, including areas of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana and Ohio.
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All severe weather types are again possible, including widespread wind gusts that could cause damage, large hail and tornadoes.
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Isolated flash floods are possible over areas of northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, southeast Missouri, western parts of Tennessee and Kentucky and Southern Illinois.
Thursday
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Mr. Mosier said the threat of severe weather would be on a “downward trend” from the middle of the week, though some severe weather may continue over areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Thursday.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
The post More Strong Storms Expected After Deadly Midwest Tornadoes appeared first on New York Times.
