A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.
Talk of an endgame is early, and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump, who continues to seek all-out victory. But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” The official requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the Iran situation.
Trump has wavered among several conceptions of the outcome. He spoke at first about a negotiated settlement with pliable members of the regime but has since demanded surrender because, he said, his preferred negotiating partners are dead. Like Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants to press on to what he described Saturday as “the moment of truth.”
The disdain for negotiations expressed by Trump and Netanyahu may deepen after Sunday’s announcement that Iran’s new supreme leader will be Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous head of state who was killed in a massive airstrike on his compound Feb. 28. The new leader is a hard-liner who, if anything, is even closer to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps than his father was. Not a man for the bargaining table.
What concerns this official and others I’ve spoken with the past few days is that the cost of the war continues to rise — for gulf states pounded by Iranian missiles, for a global economy that’s facing steep increases in oil and natural gas prices that could trigger a worldwide economic crisis, and for Trump himself, who took the United States to war without a popular base of support for the conflict.
“I’m not sure it’s in our interest to fight until the regime is toppled,” said the Israeli official. “Nobody wants a never-ending story.”
The official said the Israeli and American bombing campaign was nearing the point of achieving its military objectives. It was close to destroying what was left of Iran’s nuclear program after U.S. bombardment in June, as well as its ballistic missile inventories and weapons-making factories, along with the top tiers of its military, intelligence and internal security forces. When I asked how long it would take to complete this military mission, the official wouldn’t answer.
“Of course, we wish to topple the regime, but that’s not the only endgame,” the Israeli said. Once the major military targets have been eliminated, “Israel would have achieved its goals,” he explained. “Iran won’t surrender, but it can send messages to accept a ceasefire with U.S. conditions.”
To be clear, this official wasn’t speaking for Netanyahu, who said Sunday that in the next phase of the war, Israel wants “to destabilize the regime, to enable change.” But the official’s views do appear to express a view shared by some within the defense establishment, which became frustrated with Netanyahu’s determination to continue combat in Gaza without a clearly defined endgame and remains skeptical about his strategic planning.
“We don’t see anyone who can replace the regime,” the Israeli official said, summarizing a view shared by U.S. and Israeli intelligence analysts. He said the regime’s centralized command-and-control structure was weakening, and there were early signs of internal rifts — but nothing to indicate that a crack-up is close. The Israeli said he doubted that arming the Kurds or other minorities would be a good strategy because it would alienate the Iranian majority.
Israeli defense planners appear to have two other concerns. One is the risk that Netanyahu will order major ground operations in Lebanon to complete the destruction of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. “We don’t want to be dragged into the quagmire,” the official said, expressing concern at another point about “the slippery slope of Lebanon.”
“We are willing to engage with Lebanese officials,” including President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, to “reach agreement on a ceasefire” there, the Israeli said. He said Israeli ground troops were inside Lebanon to attack the remnants of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force near Israel’s southern border, but “we are not planning large ground operations.” Israel wants to avoid a repeat of the 1982 ground invasion all the way to Beirut, which many Israelis came to view as a bad mistake.
A second concern expressed by the Israeli official was maintaining good relations with the United States at a time when Americans in both political parties are voicing growing concern about the alliance. “We won’t drag the U.S. into an endless war,” the official said. “Israel is a reliable ally,” not a burden, he argued.
Trump has set his course for the annihilation of the Iranian regime. He speaks about creating a new Iran that reflects that country’s yearning for freedom and modern life. But he doesn’t appear to have anything approaching a plan for achieving this worthy goal. And he’s going to have to answer the Iraq War-era question I heard reprised this weekend: Tell me how this ends?
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