Russian President Vladimir Putin is enjoying an unexpected windfall from the escalating war in the Middle East: a sudden rebound in demand for Russian oil.
As global energy markets reel from disruptions in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. Treasury Department has temporarily eased some sanctions on Russian crude, allowing select buyers—including India—to purchase oil shipments that had been stranded at sea.
Just weeks ago, Russia’s oil industry was struggling under the weight of falling prices and sanctions. Millions of barrels of crude oil were sitting offshore without buyers, squeezing the Kremlin’s finances.
Now that dynamic has flipped.
“The longer that this conflict goes on, the world will increasingly rely on both Russian crude oil and Russian refined products,” Naveen Das, a senior crude analyst at ship-tracking firm Kpler, told The Wall Street Journal.
The conflict has sent oil and gas prices surging worldwide. But, while higher prices benefit producers everywhere, disruptions in the Persian Gulf have sidelined many of Russia’s biggest competitors.
Tankers have been largely unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that an estimated 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through each day.
Buyers in Asia have been scrambling to secure supplies from elsewhere, and the shift has already emboldened Moscow.
Speaking on Russian state television this week, Vladimir Putin threatened to cut off the remaining gas Russia still supplies to Europe, months before the bloc’s own deadline to fully phase out purchases of Russian LNG and pipeline gas.
“Other markets are opening now,” Putin said.
“If they shut us down in a month or two, wouldn’t it be better to stop now and move to those countries that are reliable partners?”
But Moscow may be doing more than simply cashing in on the turmoil.
Multiple sources, including a senior U.S. official, told CBS News that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on U.S. military positions in the Middle East during the ongoing U.S. and Israeli joint operations.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded to the reports in a preview clip from a 60 Minutes interview set to air Sunday.
“No one’s putting us in danger. We’re putting the other guys in danger—that’s our job,” he said.
“We’re tracking everything; our commanders are aware of everything. We have the best intelligence in the world.”
Analysts say the conflict could also hand Moscow an unexpected strategic win on a different battlefield.
The war in Iran is draining U.S. stocks of air defense and anti-ballistic missiles, potentially leaving fewer available for Ukraine as it fights Russia’s invasion.
For Putin, Trump’s new war brings a rare double dividend: surging oil profits and a distracted U.S. military.
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