One of the first major storm systems of the spring has people across a large section of the United States bracing for multiple days of storms that could include large hail, damaging wind gusts, flooding and tornadoes from Texas to the Great Lakes.
Meteorologists with the Storm Prediction Center warned that some severe weather was expected each day for the next eight days, with Friday and Tuesday expected to deliver some of the greatest threats.
Evan Bentley, the warning coordinator meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, said that the severe threat was being driven by a stalled weather front that stretched across much of the Central United States, from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. South of this system, winds will pull warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and when that increasing moisture meets colder air high up in the atmosphere, the instability it creates will fuel severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has put in place an enhanced risk warning for Friday and Saturday across parts of the southern and central Plains, including for major cities such as Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Mo., and Tulsa, Okla.
Mr. Bentley said some of the strongest storms could produce tornadoes, wind gusts exceeding 80 miles per hour and hail larger than two inches in diameter.
Repeated thunderstorms will also bring the risk of flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center said rainfall totals of up to two inches were possible, with heavier amounts of three to five inches likely from far eastern Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas and into southern Missouri from Wednesday through Thursday. Over the weekend and through Monday, the flood risk expands farther south and east, across central and northeast Texas, Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Austin and Dallas in Texas and Shreveport in Louisiana are among the cities that are likely to face the strongest threat.
Here’s a day-by-day look at what to expect:
Wednesday
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Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the day, continuing into the night across parts of north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma and extending into the lower Ohio Valley.
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The main hazards include large hail, localized damaging wind gusts and a low risk of a couple of tornadoes, especially over areas of eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, southern Missouri and Southern Illinois. Wednesday morning, a brief tornado warning was issued for parts of central Kentucky.
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Flash floods are also possible, particularly in the area from far eastern Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas into southern Missouri.
Thursday
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By late Thursday afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and continue into Thursday night in the area from West Texas and the Texas Panhandle to western Oklahoma and Kansas.
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Large hail and isolated damaging winds gusts are likely. Some stronger storms could produce a tornado threat during the late afternoon or early evening.
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Additional strong to severe storms are expected during the evening across southern and central Kansas, and the threat could spread to Oklahoma and other parts of Kansas into the night.
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Scattered strong thunderstorms are also possible from late Thursday evening across Kansas, the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of Iowa, with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts lasting into early Friday morning.
Friday
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Severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and early evening across parts of the southern and central Plains, extending north into the lower and middle Missouri Valley. Friday evening and overnight, the severe storms threat may persist, into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
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The main threats include large hail (some possibly greater than two inches in diameter), damaging wind gusts over 80 miles per hour and strong tornadoes, especially across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
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Flash flooding will also be possible across northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri.
The weekend
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An isolated severe storm threat is expected. The highest risk areas are currently forecast from south-central Texas into northern Louisiana, and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
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The risk of flash floods continues across central and northeast Texas, Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.
Early next week
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A severe weather threat is possible on Monday, but forecasters said that Tuesday currently had the greatest potential for thunderstorms.
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Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, most likely from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
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Another round of severe thunderstorms could develop Wednesday afternoon, though forecasters said there was still significant uncertainty this far out in the forecast.
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
The post Spring Systems Threaten Days of Storms Across Much of the U.S. appeared first on New York Times.
