CNN’s data guru said the closely watched primaries in Texas yielded a “tremendous” turnout for one party and a “dumpster fire” for another.
Harry Enten said 2.3 million Democratic voters in Texas came out for the hotly contested Senate primary between State Rep. James Talarico and House Rep. Jasmine Crockett, marking the highest-ever turnout at more than twice the average this century, with only 92 percent of the estimated vote in so far.
“This beats the old record, which was 2.2 million, and that was in a presidential primary year between Obama and Clinton, and this beat it,” he said Wednesday. “Democrats are really enthusiastic. As I said, the word to describe this is ‘tremendous.’”
“GOP side, meanwhile, is a dumpster fire,” he wrote in an X post.
Enten said more people voted in the Democratic Senate primary than in the Republican three-way race among incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, attorney general Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
“This is extremely, extremely unusual—51 percent to 49 percent—and so far, there’s actually been more of the Republican ballots estimated to be counted than Democrats. So this margin may climb ever higher,” he explained, adding that this is the first time more Democrats than Republicans voted in a midterm primary election since 2002.
Enten said the numbers so far potentially have huge implications for the national polls.
“Every single midterm since 2006, the party that votes more in primaries goes on to win the House of Representatives,” he said. “And right now, in Texas, a traditionally red state, more Democrats are voting. You transition that nationally, it’s very likely that more Democrats are gonna be voting than Republicans in the primary.
Talarico, a 36-year-old rising Democratic star, beat Crockett, 44, after a tense race that saw him face off against the Federal Communications Commission over an interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert.
“This is proof that there is something happening in Texas,” Talarico told supporters on Tuesday. “Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope, and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”
After Crockett conceded, she predicted in an X post that “Texas is primed to turn blue”—a feat that hasn’t happened in nearly four decades.
Cornyn and Paxton, meanwhile, have advanced to a May 26 runoff. The heated rivalry is likely to see the well-funded incumbent senator continue to needle the attorney general on his affair allegations.
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