Candidates in Texas’s 38 House districts are competing in primaries on a freshly redrawn map, courtesy of Republican efforts last year to oust Democratic incumbents through redistricting.
The redrawn districts have sent Democrats scrambling, leading to a handful of incumbent-versus-incumbent clashes that could shrink the size of the party’s federal delegation. Several Republican incumbents also face primary challengers.
Democrats also see opportunities to go on offense, hopeful that Latino voters will swing back their way after shifting toward President Trump in 2024.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, one Democratic incumbent faces a progressive rival.
Here are some of the key House races to watch on Tuesday night.
Can a Republican incumbent fend off a MAGA challenger?
In the Second Congressional District, Representative Dan Crenshaw, a Navy SEAL veteran and Republican, is a conservative who has hewed closely to Mr. Trump’s agenda — but perhaps not closely enough for primary voters in his Houston-area district.
Mr. Crenshaw is in danger of losing his seat to Steve Toth, a state legislator who has assailed Mr. Crenshaw for his occasional breaks with the president over election denialism and a handful of other issues. Mr. Toth has earned the endorsement of Senator Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican.
Will Latino voters shift toward Democrats in South Texas?
Heavily Latino areas in South Texas have swung toward Mr. Trump over the past decade, but Democrats are hoping they can reverse that trend in the 15th Congressional District, where Representative Monica De La Cruz, a Republican, is running for re-election in November.
The Democratic primary features Bobby Pulido, the Latin Grammy Award-winning Tejano singer. Mr. Pulido, a moderate, faces a competitive primary from a left-wing emergency room doctor, Ada Cuellar, in a contest that could reveal what kind of approach appeals to the party’s base.
Will age make a difference in a Democratic clash?
Representative Al Green, a Democrat in Houston, is in danger of losing his redrawn seat in the 18th Congressional District to a fellow Democrat, Representative Christian Menefee, who is several decades younger. The two congressmen’s territories were pushed together in the redrawn map in an effort to eliminate an incumbent.
Mr. Menefee, 37, won a runoff election in January to fill a vacant seat, and polling suggests that he is favored to defeat Mr. Green, 78, in a primary that has been seen as a test of the party’s ongoing concerns about its aging incumbents after the 2024 election.
Can a Republican overcome a personal scandal?
Representative Tony Gonzales, a Republican in rural western Texas, continues to face pressure to resign over allegations that he coerced a sexual relationship with a staff member who later killed herself. Images of text messages sent by Mr. Gonzales to the staff member, Regina Santos-Aviles, were made public last month, prompting a bipartisan outcry.
Mr. Gonzales has denied having an affair with Ms. Santos-Aviles, and has argued the allegations are part of a smear campaign by his primary opponent, Brandon Herrera, a conservative gun rights advocate and YouTuber. The news has upended the 23rd Congressional District race and left Mr. Gonzales at risk of losing his re-election bid.
Which Democratic incumbents will emerge from redistricting?
In Houston, Representative Sylvia Garcia, a Democrat, was drawn out of her heavily Latino district and put on a collision course with Jarvis Johnson, a former state representative who is Black, in the heavily Black 29th Congressional District. Still, Ms. Garcia appears likely to win re-election and remain the sole Latino House member in Houston.
The Dallas-area 33rd Congressional District race looks somewhat murkier. Representative Julie Johnson faces her Democratic predecessor, Colin Allred, who dropped out of the U.S. Senate race late last year, in a bitter primary battle, though Mr. Allred has had the advantage in polls.
Which Flores will triumph in a consequential Republican showdown?
Four years ago, Mayra Flores, a far-right Latina, was a rising Republican star with Mr. Trump’s backing who won a special election to represent a district in South Texas. But she lost two subsequent elections, and faces a primary in the 34th Congressional District against Eric Flores, an Army veteran who has Mr. Trump’s endorsement this time around.
At stake is the right to face Representative Vicente Gonzalez Jr., a vulnerable but resilient Democrat whose district shifted rightward after redistricting.
Will progressive arguments about political donations resonate in North Carolina?
Many of the pitches made by progressive candidates challenging incumbent Democrats this year boil down to this: Establishment politicians are accepting donations from big-money groups — such as committees supporting cryptocurrency interests, artificial intelligence and Israel — and undermining Democrats’ commitments to working people.
That argument will be put to the test in North Carolina’s Fourth Congressional District in the Raleigh-Durham area, where Representative Valerie Foushee faces a tougher-than-expected primary challenge from Nida Allam, a progressive assailing Ms. Foushee with arguments about her campaign contributions.
Kellen Browning is a Times political reporter based in San Francisco.
The post The House Races to Watch in Tuesday’s Primary Elections appeared first on New York Times.
