The Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Texas has been a bitter and costly political slugfest that will likely reverberate for the party long after Tuesday.
Senator John Cornyn, a deal-making four-term statesman who once epitomized Texas Republicanism, has been fighting for his political life against Ken Paxton, the pugilistic state attorney general who has survived ethical and legal troubles to become a darling of the party’s right flank and its MAGA voters.
Donors and Washington Republicans, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee, rallied to Mr. Cornyn’s cause, fueling tens of millions of dollars in advertising spending by the senator and groups allied with him. For months, it has been nearly impossible to turn on the television in Texas, an expensive place to campaign, without seeing Mr. Cornyn’s face.
The race has served as a referendum on the direction that the party wants to go in the second half of the Trump administration and beyond. But even as President Trump’s approval ratings have faltered, Texas Republican primary voters have not wavered in their support for him and their desire to see candidates aligned with his agenda.
The presence of a third candidate in the race, Representative Wesley Hunt, a military veteran from Houston, all but ensures that Tuesday’s primary will end up in a runoff, extending the intraparty conflict until May 26.
And so the attacks will keep coming, much to the delight of Democrats who view the Senate seat as their best chance at a 2026 statewide victory in Texas.
Mr. Cornyn has repeatedly reminded voters of Mr. Paxton’s history: a criminal indictment for securities fraud that he later settled; an impeachment trial in the Republican-dominated state legislature that he survived; and most recently, allegations of adultery as part of his divorce. An ad that ran in the final days of the campaign described Mr. Paxton as a “wife-cheater and fraud.”
The senator has argued that a win by Mr. Paxton, a polarizing figure, would likely energize Democrats and possibly dampen Republican turnout in the November general election, endangering candidates in local races. Mr. Cornyn has called Mr. Paxton the “kiss of death” for the party in the midterms.
But the party’s voters in Texas may not be convinced.
“Republican primary voters don’t accept that message,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican political strategist who worked on Mr. Cornyn’s 2014 campaign. Voters, he said, have become confident that Texas will remain red no matter the candidate, because “this is Texas, and we’re going to win the general.”
“And history bears that out,” Mr. Steinhauser added.
Mr. Paxton is a political survivor, having emerged from scandal repeatedly over the years to win Republican primaries and general elections. He has frequently battled other Republicans, first during his time in the legislature and then as attorney general facing impeachment. He has built a following among the party’s base by using his position as top law enforcement officer in Texas to pursue conservative priorities and defend Mr. Trump.
None of the three candidates in the Republican primary has broken with the president and all have courted his support. Mr. Trump has so far declined to get involved, saying he likes all three.
In the final days of the campaign, Mr. Paxton launched attacks on Mr. Hunt, seeking to peel away supporters who may dislike Mr. Cornyn but were looking for a less scandal-plagued alternative to the attorney general.
And Mr. Paxton, as part of his closing message to voters, put out a positive ad about himself, featuring one of his daughters. It was an indication that, despite his bravado on the campaign trail, the months of attacks by Mr. Cornyn had been taking a toll and he needed to respond.
“My dad is a really good guy,” his adult daughter says in the ad, which also features Mr. Paxton’s grandchildren. “Loves God, he loves his family.”
J. David Goodman is the Texas bureau chief for The Times, based in Houston.
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