Global supply chains are on edge after the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Saturday, triggering widespread disruption across one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.
The fallout is hitting more than oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Container ships loaded with consumer goods, auto parts, electronics, and food are being rerouted or delayed, while air cargo networks are fracturing under sudden airspace closures.
“Ocean container services in the Persian Gulf have continued unaffected by the recent build-up of military forces in the region, but the escalation in conflict through military strikes means ships will now avoid the area, but for as short a time as possible,” said Peter Sand, the chief analyst at freight-rate analytics platform Xeneta.
On Sunday, MSC — the world’s largest container shipping line by capacity — said it had suspended all bookings for cargo to the Middle East until further notice.
Danish shipping giant Maersk paused Red Sea and Suez Canal sailings amid fears the Iran escalation could spill over into key shipping lanes. The company is rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.
French shipping giant CMA CGM announced Monday it will impose an “Emergency Conflict Surcharge” effective Monday, citing rising security risks. The surcharge will add between $2,000 and $4,000 per container on shipments to and from Gulf and Red Sea countries.
On Saturday, CMA CGM ordered vessels inside or bound for the Gulf to “proceed to shelter.” It also suspended sailings through the Suez Canal and rerouted ships to the Cape of Good Hope.
German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd introduced a $1,500 per standard container war risk surcharge and suspended vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sailing around Africa, rather than through the Suez Canal, absorbs roughly 2.5 million 20-foot container units’ worth of global container capacity, according to Xeneta’s Sand.
Air cargo rates may rise
Air freight is also under strain.
Several Middle Eastern airspaces have been closed or restricted, disrupting passenger and cargo flights.
Parcel delivery giant FedEx suspended flights to and from markets including Bahrain, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, and halted pickup and delivery services in several Gulf countries.
Qatar Airways Cargo temporarily suspended operations due to the closure of Qatari airspace.
DSV, a Danish logistics company, said in an advisory that airspace restrictions are forcing carriers to suspend services or divert flights and lengthen routings.
With less cargo space available on key Asia-Europe and Middle East routes, air freight rates are likely to rise, space will tighten, and airlines may make short-notice schedule and pricing changes, according to DSV.
Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, wrote on X that conflict in the Middle East has removed 18% of global air freight capacity from the market.
If carriers begin omitting Gulf port calls, containers may be discharged at alternative hubs and trucked onward, wrote Xeneta’s Sand.
The broader concern, however, is what the escalation means for global trade flows through the Red Sea this year. The conflict comes after more than two years of disruption caused by Iran-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.
“The repercussions of the joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory action will see the further weaponization of trade and shatter hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,” wrote Sand.
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