The US and Israel’s fight with Iran shows just how key air defenses have become in higher-intensity modern wars, conflicts increasingly defined by long-range missile and drone attacks.
The conflict, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, has been heavily focused on air defenses, either knocking them out to permit air operations or leaning hard on them to shield bases from retaliatory strikes.
The US and Israel said their strikes focused on Iran’s air defenses and missile launch sites, and US and partner forces in the countries attacked in response relied on a mix of air defenses to fend off Iranian weapons.
Kuwait, home to installations like Ali Al Salem Air Base that hosts US troops, reported on Sunday that it had faced 97 ballistic missiles and 283 drones. Defeating this kind of barrage demands deep air defense arsenals.
When air defenses fall short
US Central Command on Saturday said the strikes on Iran aimed to “dismantle the Iranian regime’s security apparatus” and prioritized locations “that posed an imminent threat,” listing Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields as targets.
The Israel Defense Forces said that they had “dismantled the majority of the aerial defense systems in western and central Iran” and are “paving the way towards establishing aerial superiority over the skies of Tehran.”
On Saturday, Israel used around 200 jets to drop hundreds of bombs on 500 targets on Saturday, including Iran’s air defense systems and missile launchers.
Having insufficient air defenses can leave a country severely vulnerable in a war of ranged strikes by creating a permissive environment for enemy airpower, as well as munitions, to find their targets, be they military installations or senior leadership. Over the past day, Iran has suffered serious losses to both.
Air defenses matter in a missile fight
Air defenses have been critical for the US and its allies this weekend.
CENTCOM said it was able to defend against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, with no casualties. A US official told Business Insider that US-made MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile systems and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, batteries were used to protect the Middle East from Iran’s retaliatory strikes. Warship-launched interceptors and aircraft were also involved, as they’ve been in other engagements involving big Iranian missile barrages.
Nations attacked by Iran, countries like Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, said they were largely able to intercept Iran’s missiles, sometimes stopping entire waves. Details are still emerging, but damage appears minimal. Casualties, likewise, have been extremely limited thus far, at least compared to what they might have been otherwise.
That was only day one though. Iran has a large missile arsenal, and it has pledged to continue its attacks. Continued large barrages will put tremendous strain on air defense arsenals.
Along with other current and potential conflicts, Iran is yet more evidence that much of modern war has become ranged missile fights. If you don’t have good air defenses, you may very well lose.
This is a very different way of war compared to the fights against terrorists and insurgencies that the US and its allies waged for decades in the Middle East.
More would be needed for higher-end threats
China and Russia both field substantial missile arsenals that they are continuing to expand. The West is aware, but the war in Ukraine, where Russia bombards Ukrainian cities nightly with massive mixes of missiles and drones, has been a real wake-up call.
Ukraine has been developing its own air defenses while seeking additional options from partners. Each barrage is extremely demanding. In one engagement, Ukraine expended nearly $100 million in interceptors fighting off Russian attacks.
Much of the West has allowed air defense arsenals to atrophy, but there are significant new investments in air defense across the NATO alliance.
The NATO chief pledged a fivefold increase in air defenses, driven by the alliance’s increased spending. Established manufacturers are increasing production, and new systems are being created. President Donald Trump wants his Golden Dome missile defense system to protect against complex attacks from Russia and China.
But air defense systems and their missiles are expensive and time-consuming to make, and the industry is struggling to keep up with increasing demand, even with companies boosting output.
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general and strategist with a focus on future war, said that the heavier demand could cause new problems. Patriot interceptor missiles are critical to Ukrainian defenses, but are in heavy demand at present in the Middle East,” he wrote on Saturday.
Russia, he said, will want to “exploit any temporary Ukrainian capability gaps while American attention and production capacity focuses on Iran.”
The US will also need to maintain a strong air defense posture in both Europe and the Pacific as well, even as it fights Iran.
Ryan warned that concentrating US missile defense assets in the Middle East could degrade its deterrence in the Pacific: “Every carrier in the Gulf, every squadron in Europe, every missile defence battery protecting Middle Eastern countries represents capacity unavailable for containing Chinese expansion.”
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