A former Trump official is warning the president could be in trouble if he doesn’t nail his State of the Union speech.
The unnamed ex-official, with insider knowledge of Tuesday’s speech, said it will be typically firebrand—but admitted that the administration knows that it is on the back foot after a series of public flops.
“It’s an offensive speech, but the backdrop of it all is that they’ve been in a defensive posture for several weeks now,” they told Politico.
A Washington Post–ABC News poll, conducted between Feb. 12-17, has Trump’s approval rating at worrying lows. In fact, the WaPo-ABC data suggests he has sunk to a five-year nadir.
It shows that Trump’s net approval is deep in negative territory on several key issues: border security is at -3, the economy -16, immigration -18, tariffs -30, and inflation -33.
As 2025 bled into 2026, Trump appeared to have abandoned the “America First” issues that led him to the White House. Indeed, this week, his administration continues to pummel suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and mull over an offensive in Iran. All of this has weakened his footing compared to a year ago, with the midterms in November looking less and less appealing for the Republican Party.
“We were 1,000 percent on offense a year ago,” the former official recalled. “We felt like we were firing on all cylinders. And early on, we didn’t have many points for scrutiny. Now, a year in, there is a record to kind of hang the president on. That makes this much more challenging.”
It could get worse if Trump goes off-script and fails to hammer the messaging that the nation wants to hear.
“Last year was all about promise and potential. This year has to be about the current reality,” said Kevin Madden, a GOP communications strategist in Washington, D.C. “I expect the President and his team know that this speech presents a moment of opportunity to really address the affordability angle. We know it was the driving issue of 2025, and we know it’s going to define 2026.”
Trump has repeatedly swatted away affordability as a genuine issue, calling it a “hoax” cooked up by political opponents last year. His own chief of staff, Susie Wiles, urged him to stay on message.
During a meandering 90-minute speech in Pennsylvania in December, he admitted as much, telling the crowd that Wiles, whom he called “Susie Trump,” had instructed him to focus on the economy.
“There’s a lot of wins to talk about, and not just the stock market,” said a senior White House official. “The pieces in the OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) to help people were designed to take effect this year, ahead of the midterms, so people will feel the impact before they have to vote.”
Veteran D.C. pollster Whit Ayres cautioned that staying on message is vital for Trump because this is connected to his approval rating. “The single most important variable in midterm elections is the president’s job approval. When it’s above 50 percent, the party loses seats but not that many. When the president’s job approval is below, the average loss of seats is 32,” he warned.
The White House has been contacted for further comment.
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