Independents who went for President Trump at the ballot box in 2024 are deserting him at record levels as Republicans brace for a wipeout in midterm elections.
Trump’s net approval rating going into the State of the Union on Tuesday sits at a staggering minus 27, compared to -10 in 2020 and -15 at this point in both 2019 and 2018.
“The bottom line is this: Donald Trump has never been weaker going into a State of the Union address,” CNN data guru Harry Enten declared on News Central on Monday morning.
At the same point during his second term, former President Barack Obama was at minus 15. George W. Bush was at minus 11. Enten said the mass exodus of independents is what is driving Trump’s favorability free fall.
“It is also the weakest that Donald Trump has ever been with independents. Look at this drop!” he declared, “We‘ve been talking about it the past few months. At this point a year ago, Donald Trump was at -13 points…look at this, minus 47 points among independents, the lowest Donald Trump has ever been in either of his two terms as president with independents. That is driving these numbers.”
Enten added, “When you‘re 47 points underwater with independents, that‘s the name of the game. You can‘t be above water overall. And that‘s why Donald Trump is near record lows overall and the lowest he‘s ever been going into a State of the Union address.”
“Those numbers with independents, just eye-popping there,” host John Berman said, sounding genuinely shocked.
Independents have joined Latino voters and young people in turning against the president in staggering numbers.
Several national polls suggest that voters feel Trump has failed them on almost every issue. The latest, a Washington Post–ABC News poll conducted between Feb. 12-17 among 2,589 U.S. adults, revealed a stark message for the 79-year-old: Disapproval has reached its highest level since the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.
Trump’s approval rating was at 39 percent positive and 60 percent negative among adults nationwide. Notably, nearly half of all respondents—47 percent—say they strongly disapprove of the president.
The poll shows that Trump’s net approval is deep in negative territory on several key issues: border security is at -3, the economy -16, immigration -18, tariffs -30, and inflation -33.
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